Russia may unleash massive air assault on February 24: how many missiles, Shahed drones does it have?

The second anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian army, which instead of a "quick victorious war" turned into a protracted, bloody slaughter of attrition for Russia, is unlikely to be avoided by the military and political leadership of the Russian Federation, writes Ukrainian military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko. 

Especially now, when Russian propaganda is trying its best to present the capture of Avdiivka as some kind of epic achievement.

Therefore, the threat of missile strikes on February 24 is quite real. But what is Russia's current capability to launch massive missile strikes? 

Will the Russian occupation forces be able to repeat the 29 of December 2023?

In recent months, the Russian occupation forces have been using a combined ammunition set consisting of several types of missiles in their massive strikes against Ukraine. Most often, these are (in descending order) Kh-101/555/55, Iskander-M and Iskander-K, Kh-22/32, Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, and Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles.

During the strike on 29 December 2023, Russia used 90 missiles against Ukraine:

- 90 Kh-101/555 missiles

- eight Kh-22/32 missiles

- five Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles

- five Kh-31P

- one Kh-59;

- 14 С-300.

Total: 158 missiles and Shahed-131/136 'kamikaze' drones.

Then there were the strikes on 2 January 2024, involving 70 Kh-101/555/55 missiles, and on 8 January - 24 Kh-101/555/55, etc.

In total, Russia used at least 252 Kh-101/555/55 missiles since the resumption of massive strikes. At least - because some of the missiles fell on the territory of the Russian Federation itself, without reaching Ukraine, and their fragments are occasionally found in fields, forests, and on the banks of rivers and lakes.

That is, according to the most optimistic estimates, Russian troops may still have up to 150 Kh-101/555/55 missiles in service.

For its part, the Kalibr sea-launched cruise missile ammunition - about 300 units - remains virtually untouched. And this component is the most dangerous at the moment, as the Russian Black Sea Fleet, despite having fled Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, retains the potential for terrorist strikes.

Given all of the above, we can see that Russian troops, unfortunately, have the potential to launch a massive combined missile strike against Ukraine.

Shahed-131/136 'kamikaze' drones

An integral part of any combined missile strike in the area of operations is a preliminary raid by 'kamikaze' drones. On the night of 1 January, Russia set an absolute record when it launched 90 Shahed-131/136. And December 2023 was a record month for the number of 'kamikaze' drones involved - 690 (including launches on the night of December 31, 2023 to January 1, 2024). But Russia managed to achieve this number due to the previous accumulation in October and November.

In January 2024, the Russian occupation forces used 274 Shahed-131/136, and 252 in 20 days of February. These figures indicate that a certain accumulation process may be taking place in Russia.

The threat of a 'kamikaze' drone attack on the eve of February 24, on that day and even afterwards is quite high. So are the resources available to the Russian military to carry out such terrorist attacks.

Conclusions

On February 24, 2024, Russia may launch a massive strike against Ukraine to intimidate and demonstrate its capabilities on the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion. Such strikes are fully consistent with the concept of aggression and terror.

The psychology of maniacs and murderers will tell them nothing else but to organize a missile strike on Ukraine on this date. Therefore, increased vigilance for all Ukrainians is needed.