Espreso. Global

Russia may unleash massive air assault on February 24: how many missiles, Shahed drones does it have?

22 February, 2024 Thursday
20:50

It has long been observed that Russia has a maniacal tendency to carry out acts of terror on certain dates. This was the case on New Year's Day, and Russian forces had been preparing for these missile strikes for three months. There may be a similar threat on February 24

The second anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian army, which instead of a "quick victorious war" turned into a protracted, bloody slaughter of attrition for Russia, is unlikely to be avoided by the military and political leadership of the Russian Federation, writes Ukrainian military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko

Especially now, when Russian propaganda is trying its best to present the capture of Avdiivka as some kind of epic achievement.

Therefore, the threat of missile strikes on February 24 is quite real. But what is Russia's current capability to launch massive missile strikes? 

Will the Russian occupation forces be able to repeat the 29 of December 2023?

In recent months, the Russian occupation forces have been using a combined ammunition set consisting of several types of missiles in their massive strikes against Ukraine. Most often, these are (in descending order) Kh-101/555/55, Iskander-M and Iskander-K, Kh-22/32, Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, and Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles.

During the strike on 29 December 2023, Russia used 90 missiles against Ukraine:

- 90 Kh-101/555 missiles

- eight Kh-22/32 missiles

- five Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles

- five Kh-31P

- one Kh-59;

- 14 С-300.

Total: 158 missiles and Shahed-131/136 'kamikaze' drones.

Then there were the strikes on 2 January 2024, involving 70 Kh-101/555/55 missiles, and on 8 January - 24 Kh-101/555/55, etc.

In total, Russia used at least 252 Kh-101/555/55 missiles since the resumption of massive strikes. At least - because some of the missiles fell on the territory of the Russian Federation itself, without reaching Ukraine, and their fragments are occasionally found in fields, forests, and on the banks of rivers and lakes.

That is, according to the most optimistic estimates, Russian troops may still have up to 150 Kh-101/555/55 missiles in service.

For its part, the Kalibr sea-launched cruise missile ammunition - about 300 units - remains virtually untouched. And this component is the most dangerous at the moment, as the Russian Black Sea Fleet, despite having fled Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, retains the potential for terrorist strikes.

Given all of the above, we can see that Russian troops, unfortunately, have the potential to launch a massive combined missile strike against Ukraine.

Shahed-131/136 'kamikaze' drones

An integral part of any combined missile strike in the area of operations is a preliminary raid by 'kamikaze' drones. On the night of 1 January, Russia set an absolute record when it launched 90 Shahed-131/136. And December 2023 was a record month for the number of 'kamikaze' drones involved - 690 (including launches on the night of December 31, 2023 to January 1, 2024). But Russia managed to achieve this number due to the previous accumulation in October and November.

In January 2024, the Russian occupation forces used 274 Shahed-131/136, and 252 in 20 days of February. These figures indicate that a certain accumulation process may be taking place in Russia.

The threat of a 'kamikaze' drone attack on the eve of February 24, on that day and even afterwards is quite high. So are the resources available to the Russian military to carry out such terrorist attacks.

Conclusions

On February 24, 2024, Russia may launch a massive strike against Ukraine to intimidate and demonstrate its capabilities on the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion. Such strikes are fully consistent with the concept of aggression and terror.

The psychology of maniacs and murderers will tell them nothing else but to organize a missile strike on Ukraine on this date. Therefore, increased vigilance for all Ukrainians is needed. 

Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2024, Friday
19 April
21:50
Review
Victorious news of 786th day of war: Ukraine’s Air Force shoots down Russian Tu-22M3, German drone manufacturer opens factory in Ukraine
21:35
Russian army attacks Ukrainian positions in Kherson region 7 times with little success — General Staff
21:15
Kherson Art Museum identifies more than 100 paintings stolen by Russia
20:57
Exclusive
Putin will continue war until it becomes clear who is next in White House — political analyst
20:36
Exclusive
What parameters should F-16 have to effectively fight Russia: aviation expert explains
20:15
Ukrainian navy explains why Russian forces rarely use Kalibr missiles
19:49
Russia will not cease fire even if talks with Ukraine start - Lavrov
19:26
Exclusive
What could have shot down Russian Tu-22M bomber: military expert suggests
19:13
Updated
Poland detains Russian agent planning assassination attempt on Zelenskyy
19:05
Exclusive
"Ukraine has weapons to shoot down Russian aircraft": Air Force comments on Tu-22M3 downing
18:46
Updated
Slovaks raise €2 million for shells for Ukraine as government fails to back Czech initiative
18:45
G7 pledges to strengthen Ukraine's air defense
18:25
G7 defines specific steps to help Ukraine, says FM Kuleba
18:00
Review
General election in India: Relations with Ukraine and why role of Asian player shouldn't be underestimated
17:40
20 Days in Mariupol team brings Oscar to Ukraine
17:19
OPINION
War will end when world understands its causes and consequences - Ukrainian diplomat
16:57
Ukraine returns 17-year-old girl deported to Russia
16:35
Exclusive
Ukrainian resistance in occupied territories helps army
16:13
Exclusive
Russian army redeploys aviation to Bakhmut sector, Ukrainian forces lack air defenses
15:50
Russia attacks Bilopillya in Sumy region, severely injuring three people
15:30
Ukraine's top diplomat discusses strengthening of air defense with Italian counterpart
15:08
Russia cancels Victory Day parade in Crimea on May 9
14:48
Ukraine needs deeply echeloned air defense system - Ukrainian Air Force
14:27
Updated
Russia attacks Ukraine, killing and injuring civilians in Dnipro and region, including children
13:58
OPINION
Everything is to be decided in Europe and by Europe
13:38
"Situation is critical": Poland's PM says coming weeks could decide fate of war in Ukraine
13:18
Both U.S. congressional parties back bill to aid Ukraine — Ukraine’s PM following meetings with US officials
12:58
Review
Ukraine's dependence on US assistance. Technological solutions and frontline update. Serhiy Zgurets's column
12:38
Explosions heard in occupied Mariupol, Russian military base hit - Advisor to Mariupol Mayor
12:17
Ukrainian photojournalist Yulia Kochetova among winners of World Press Photo-2024 Global Stage
11:57
Ukraine downs Tu-22M3 aircraft in Russia used to launch Kh-22/Kh-32 missiles at Ukraine
11:35
Russians raid and mobilize Muslims in Crimea during Eid al-Fitr holiday
11:15
Russia steps up mobilization ahead of possible summer offensive: ISW names problems that Russia may face
10:55
Air defense systems belong in cities under attack, not warehouses - Zelenskyy on massive Russian attack on Dnipro
10:35
Russia loses 870 soldiers, 9 tanks and 21 artillery systems in one day in Ukraine - General Staff
09:55
"We have no plan B": Ukraine's Foreign Minister comments on expectations from US Congress vote
2024, Thursday
18 April
21:59
Review
Victorious news of 785th day of war: Ukraine has drones able to hit targets in Siberia, Germany will supply more air defense systems
21:38
97% of Russian attacks target civilian infrastructure - Ukraine in OSCE
21:18
Ukraine may get seven more Patriot systems from Germany and partners - Scholz
21:00
Ukraine develops drones capable of 3,000 kilometers range, reaching Siberia — The Economist
More news