Can Washington deliver “avalanche” of aid to Ukraine before Trump's inauguration?

Defense Express reports the information.

According to Defense Express, Washington is determined to deliver all aid funded for Ukraine before Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. To meet this goal, a new strategic plan has been developed, featuring an “avalanche of military aid” and significant new sanctions against Russia.

This information was reported by The Guardian, citing a briefing by U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. While the report does not provide a precise figure for the aid volume, it mentions large quantities: “hundreds of thousands of additional artillery rounds, thousands of rockets and hundreds of armored vehicles.” The aim is to deliver all aid by mid-January, leaving only 45 days from today, December 6, 2024, until the target date.

Defense Express estimates that Washington would need to spend $135.55 million each day, including weekends and holidays, to meet its commitments under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) program. This program provides weapons directly from U.S. Department of Defense stockpiles.

Currently, $6.1 billion remains allocated for this program. Previously, on November 13, the balance stood at $7.1 billion, but only two aid packages have been allocated since then: $275 million on November 20 and $725 million on December 2. Additionally, $2.2 billion remains under the USAI program, which focuses on procuring weapons from manufacturers.

The $6.1 billion allocated under the PDA program includes funding for 2024 and $2.8 billion recovered after a budgeting error identified in summer 2023. If the error is disregarded entirely, the remaining $3.3 billion from the allocated budget would represent a more realistic estimate for delivering an equivalent amount of weaponry.

The core issue, however, is not funding but the availability of equipment and maintaining a baseline defense capability. The U.S. Department of Defense remains unwilling to deplete its stockpiles beyond acceptable operational thresholds, a stance that is far more significant than any multi-billion-dollar accounting discrepancies.

If the Pentagon upholds this policy, the only viable method to deliver an “avalanche of weapons” to Ukraine within the 45-day timeframe would be to transfer items already scheduled for decommissioning or recently retired. The challenge with this approach is that such equipment is often decommissioned due to age, wear, and the need for repairs. Repairing this equipment in the U.S. would take months, making a 45-day delivery window unattainable.

An alternative solution would be to transfer the equipment “as is” and conduct repairs directly in Ukraine. In this scenario, the $2.2 billion allocated under the USAI program could be used to support American military contractors working on-site in Ukraine, a plan that became feasible after these contractors were authorized to operate in Ukraine starting in early November.

It’s important to note that this remains speculative and potentially overly optimistic. At present, no other solutions within the existing framework appear practical.

• The White House has developed a strategy to strengthen Ukraine's military position. It includes military aid and new sanctions against Russia.