Putin prepares for new wave of mobilization

On March 25, 2025, new rules for conscription of military personnel will come into effect in Russia. Only workers in the defense industry and law enforcement are fully exempt from mobilization. The focus should be on law enforcement: these regime supporters are bought not just with higher salaries, but by ensuring they won’t be sent to fight.

All others, in some capacity, will be subject to conscription (even government agencies, although at the central level, only 5% of personnel are exempt, and at the regional level, 30% of workers are).

"This move indicates that the central government is experiencing the final depletion of what could be loosely termed volunteer-contract soldiers."

The latest attempt to attract relatively large numbers through debt write-offs up to $90,000 (effective only for new contract soldiers from December 1, 2024) is unlikely to be overly widespread. I believe the calculation is for a maximum of 100,000-200,000 new contract soldiers, comparable to the recruitment plan for 2.5-5 months. This will cost the Russian budget 1-2 trillion rubles.

In other words, the Russian government is laying the groundwork for a potential new wave of mobilization. At the same time, payments for mobilized soldiers will be significantly lower than those for contract soldiers. While they won’t be zero, the amounts will certainly be less than the current $20,000.

Whether this mobilization will happen at the end of spring (as Russian centers aren’t prepared to handle both conscripts and contract soldiers simultaneously) is still uncertain, and it will depend on the negotiation process.

For now, we can only observe two key points:

• If we don’t reach a conflict freeze by May, the likelihood of its protraction by months (or even a year) dramatically increases.
• Russians are currently preparing for both scenarios (freezing and not freezing the conflict), and are already planning for the continuation of the war.

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About the author. Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.