Peripheral independence spells doom for Russia

I started reading the book “Why Empires Fall” by Cambridge economist John Rapley and historian from the Royal College of London Peter Heather. The book positions itself as a revolution in our understanding of imperial decline.

The main thesis proclaimed from the very first pages is that the decline of empires is primarily caused by processes unfolding on the peripheries, rather than within the metropolises.

Well, we knew this in the 20th century as national liberation movements, but the authors apply the same thesis to the Roman Empire, using data from archaeological research of the last half-century to debunk Gibbon's classical thesis that Rome declined economically over a long period of time and eventually collapsed definitively.

Shortly before its collapse, the authors argue, Rome was at the peak of its economic growth. The causes of decline were on the periphery: local elites became much more autonomous than the imperial center desired.

"Applying this model to the present-day Russian Empire and Ukraine as its recently independent colonies suggests that our economic and political success spells the demise of the empire, even when the newly revitalized Ukraine does not pose a direct threat to Russia (such as in terms of market competition, etc.)."

The Russian invasion aims to delay an inevitable process. They believe time can be halted and reversed. But we know they've learned history poorly.

That's why our task is not just to survive but to become successful. It's the death of Koshchey. I'll write about Koshchey another time.

Furthermore, it's crucial for the Caucasus, Volga region, and Siberia to move forward. The independence of Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, Ingushetia, Sakha-Yakutia, and other capable republics will spell the end of the empire. Then, a different history will begin. Medieval kingdoms and early modern cities were not descendants of the Roman Empire; it was a completely different story.

We can wait for it to happen, or we can accelerate this process. We can significantly accelerate this process. The choice is ours.

Source

About the author. Valeriy Pekar, lecturer at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy

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