“No reason for optimism": Military expert Zhmailo on Russia's escalating attacks, plans through 2026

Dmytro Zhmailo, co-founder and executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, stated this on Espreso TV.

“The Russian Federation is ramping up production and aims to establish a full production cycle of Shahed drones by 2026. Right now, they're assembling these under the Geran-2 label from semi-finished kits supplied by Iran. They're constantly refining Shahed drones and have made them semi-autonomous, allowing operators to control them from as far as 70 km away. Some even have Ukrainian SIM cards to guide them via GPS. One Alabuga facility in Tatarstan, known as a Russian research hub, was originally set to produce 6,000 Shaheds by late 2025, but they hit that target early. According to updated plans, they intend to produce another 4,700 units by next September. So yes, production is accelerating, largely because sanctions are being sidestepped,” he said.

Zhmailo added that a fresh wave of serious mass attacks might kick off with the start of the heating season.

“They’re using this to learn about our Air Defense Forces and adapt their strategies. They’re even deploying cheaper Gerbera drones with Shahed drones made from plywood and plastic, fitted with lenses to scatter signals and confuse our defenses. These smaller drones show up on radar as Shaheds. Since this summer, Russia has been deploying about 50 such Shaheds daily, and that rate isn’t likely to drop. That’s why we keep pushing for strengthened air defense systems; the most cost-effective weapon against Shaheds is the Gepard, which is why we’re in constant talks with Berlin,” Zhmailo explained.

• On the evening of Saturday, October 26, Russia launched Shahed attack drones at Ukraine, targeting critical infrastructure in the Sumy region.