NATO's limited humanitarian contingent in Ukraine is realistic

According to Edward Luttwak, a consultant to the US State Department, writer, and historian, in his column for UnHerd, NATO countries will soon have to send troops to Ukraine, or else they will face a catastrophic defeat. British and French forces, along with countries in Northern Europe, are quietly preparing to deploy small elite units and logistical support personnel troops who may remain at a distance from the front line.

Luttwak says that the maximum contribution from the United States is about 40,000 troops (due to the threat to Taiwan from China), so the bulk of the contingent should be provided by more populous EU countries (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain). This contingent will allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to know part of the burden in the rear (or on the border with Belarus - to catch the subversive groups and control the situation) and send more soldiers to the front.

“The historian believes that this is a critically necessary step, primarily to prevent Russia from attacking Europe itself if Ukraine falls.”

However, Stoltenberg has already shifted the focus to maximizing aid as a substitute for direct participation in the war. The majority of people do not want a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, and politicians of allied countries reassure voters that none of their soldiers will be sent to fight in Ukraine.

Given this, a "limited NATO humanitarian contingent in Ukraine" is, on the whole, a fairly realistic scenario. It would indeed avoid the slippery slope of NATO's direct involvement in the war. But it is obvious that even detailed discussions will not begin until the fall. Until then, we still have to live and survive.

However, in general, the trend is definitely positive for us: politicians have begun to systematically accustom the voters of the allied countries to the idea of an imminent Russian attack on them, of the danger of Russia, of Russia being once again the main and most dangerous enemy, and not "ballet, Dostoevsky, figure skating."

About the author. Oleksii Holobutskyi, political scientist

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