Putin will always pursue aggression as long as he’s alive

But the answer isn’t rooted in psychology, it’s in the straightforward logic of a dictator. Putin has built his military machine to such extremes and reprogrammed the mindset of his “deep people” so completely that he can’t afford to stop the war. Halting hostilities, cutting payments, or even slightly reducing the defense budget would spark a wave of unrest.

"So, as long as Putin is alive, he will rely on aggression to survive. Switching focus from Ukraine to somewhere else (like Syria) doesn’t seem feasible now. Another small “victorious” war isn’t an obvious option either, simply due to a lack of resources."

Theoretically, in the case of a temporary “freeze,” he could keep his circle satisfied for another year by saying, “We’re preparing to strike again.” But admitting this would also mean conceding that Trump is the bigger alpha male, a major problem in a system where weakness in the tsar undermines everything.

That’s why my view remains the same: Putin will keep fighting as long as he objectively has the strength. This doesn’t rule out moments where he might play along with Trump or Xi, but for him, stopping the war now poses a greater risk than continuing it while promising his circle, “We’ll pressure Ukraine, Europe, or the U.S. soon.”

The real danger for us is that their pressure still feels all too real. And for now, this threat hasn’t gone away.

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About the author. Viktor Shlinchak, Chairman of the Board of the Institute of World Politics.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.