Espreso. Global
OPINION

Anticipating Russia's 2024 developments

15 January, 2024 Monday
15:10

We're likely to witness internal disputes within the Russian elites, possibly even manufactured ones, in the autumn of 2024

client/title.list_title

Russia's domestic political situation

A significant and noteworthy shift in the Russian Federation is the decline in its internal socio-economic conditions. Pinpointing the exact state of the economy is challenging due to constant misinformation from Putin and the authorities.

However, a September 2023 survey by The Institute of Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia (IKAR) reveals a notable shift in Russian sentiment: 42% identify low salaries and pensions as the foremost issue, and the “special military operation” at 31%. Contrasting this with December 2022, where 50% considered the military operation the main problem and only 25% cited low salaries and pensions.

This trend toward a worsening situation is acknowledged by Putin himself, who dedicated a significant portion of his press conference to social issues rather than the ongoing war.

Why does this matter? I consistently emphasize that revolutions in Russia initiate from the top. Initially, conditions deteriorate, paving the way for individuals within the ruler's circle to emerge as potential leaders seeking change. Prigozhin exemplified this, yet due to the lack of societal prerequisites, he ultimately failed. This is Putin's greatest fear – the rise of a new opposition leader.

My prediction is that approaching autumn will bring about conflicts within the Russian elites, possibly even orchestrated ones, creating a controlled opposition figure. However, as history shows, the controlled often veer out of control, akin to the times of the tsar.

Election

Putin's election is expected to be calm. The key question is whether he can deliver achievements like Avdiivka. Currently, my prediction is – no, he won’t. Russian generals underestimated the situation, burning significant resources, and recovery may take too long before the elections. However, it's doubtful that Putin needs a victory for the Russians. If Avdiivka is not taken, they’ll celebrate the capture of some other minor settlement. The survey indicates that the “special military operation” is not a priority. Instead, he rather needs this kind of victory for his partners. 

The election results will likely be globally recognized, albeit with criticisms about their democratic nature. And I urge our activists not to waste resources fighting this recognition. Non-recognition hampers any peace process with Putin's involvement, an outcome the West won't accept.

Sanctions

Sanctions remain a potent tool for ending the war. And I think Ukraine needs to exert more effort. While 2023 showed a 40% decline in Russian oil revenues, it wasn't a complete success. Russia gained access to crucial technologies and managed to militarize its economy. Despite assistance from China, India, Iran, and North Korea, the majority of Russia's income and technology still comes from the West.

In 2024, the focus is likely to shift towards enforcing existing sanctions rather than adopting new packages. Ukraine should actively participate, detecting violations by countries like Georgia or Kazakhstan, which facilitate significant Western imports to Russia. A crucial conversation between the West and India about its democratic stance is hoped for.

War

The war's combat phase will unfold in two stages. The first is before Putin's election, as discussed earlier. The second, before the U.S. election, from July to August, could see Putin launching a powerful offensive, possibly targeting Kharkiv. While the offensive might be futile, its purpose is to showcase Biden's failure in supporting Ukraine, favoring Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

Overall, a prediction is made that Ukraine and Russia will swap roles next year. Russia may launch robust counterattacks but face setbacks. Ukraine could achieve some successful counterattacks, possibly even winning more than the previous year. Putin is anticipated to end the year on a very sad note with failed offensives, deteriorating internal conditions, and elite divisions.

About the author. Viktor Andrusiv, a political and public figure, analyst, and publicist

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors. 

Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2024, Sunday
15 September
13:18
OPINION
"Shadow fleet" shields Russia from sanctions
12:49
164 skirmishes at Russian-Ukrainian front: Russia focuses on Pokrovsk and Kurakhove
12:19
Exclusive
Russia will increase logistical burden on Crimean bridge, Ukrainian Navy says
11:46
Exclusive
Combat operations in Kursk region are highly dynamic, with no defined contact line – Ukrainian military
11:17
Russia attacks Ukraine with nearly 300 drones, 800+ missiles in one week – Zelenskyy
10:47
Russia loses 6 tanks, 23 artillery systems, 1,170 soldiers in a day of war in Ukraine
2024, Saturday
14 September
19:55
Scholz's party calls for creation of contact group for Ukraine-Russia negotiations
19:30
Russian forces kill three farmers near Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia region
19:08
Netherlands unable to deliver promised additional Patriot system to Ukraine: journalists give reasons
18:46
83 clashes at front: Russian army is active in Pokrovsk, Kurakhove sectors - Ukraine's General Staff
18:25
Exclusive
U.S. vs China: lawmaker on peace initiatives regarding Russia's war against Ukraine
18:07
Ukrainian troops show how they surround Russian forces in Kursk region
17:48
Exclusive
War with Russia won't end even if Ukraine's 1991 borders are restored - 103rd Brigade
17:26
Exclusive
Russia, Iran act as allies now, trying to destroy free world order - American expert Fried
17:05
Guerrillas explore territory of radio plant in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod region
16:44
Exclusive
No peace talks or preconditions for them now - Russian opposition expert Morozov
16:20
NATO could prevent Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, admits Stoltenberg
16:02
Exclusive
Russia to pick convenient moment for next strike if Ukraine doesn't join NATO, EU - expert Fried
15:40
Exclusive
New Russia-Iran deal focuses on adapting missile engines - aviation expert
15:19
Updated
Ukraine returns 103 Ukrainian servicemen from Russian captivity, including 23 Azov defenders
15:00
Ukraine's Defense Ministry authorizes mobile workshops for weapons repair
14:42
Russian army destroys Skhidnyi overpass in Pokrovsk
14:23
OPINION
On Trofimova's 'anti-war' film Russians at War
14:01
Updated
U.S. imposes new sanctions against Russian propaganda: Blinken notes RT's global influence
13:40
Review
Counteroffensive in Kursk region: Russia's goals, Ukraine’s strategy in Horlivka sector. Serhiy Zgurets' column
13:17
Russia attacks power facility in Sumy region, killing one employee, injuring 7 more
12:59
Exclusive
Ukraine's negotiation strength relies on four major factors - General Kryvonos
12:38
UK intelligence shows bridges destroyed by Ukrainian army in Russia's Kursk region
12:20
Russia yet to launch major counteroffensive to drive Ukraine out of Kursk region - ISW
11:59
138 clashes occur at front, Russian army advances in Kurakhove direction - Ukraine's General Staff
11:37
'Ukraine sets up concentration camps in Kursk region': Russian fakes for September 13
11:18
Updated
Russia launches over 70 Shahed drones against Ukraine - Zelenskyy
10:56
Russia loses 1,210 soldiers, 25 artillery systems, air defense in one day of war in Ukraine
10:35
Poland may transfer additional MiG-29s to Ukraine, says FM Sikorski
2024, Friday
13 September
21:35
Russia to be invited to second Peace Summit in November - Zelenskyy
21:20
Kamala Harris pushes Ukraine-focused ads in crucial election states
21:05
Russia plans to deploy up to 70,000 troops to Kursk region - Zelenskyy
20:50
Ukraine’s Kursk operation drives record number of missing Russian soldiers appeals
20:35
Robots might replace half of frontline troops, Ukraine’s Digital Transformation Ministry says
20:20
100+ missiles, drones detected over Ukrainian nuclear plants in recent weeks
More news