Russia: specter of civil war

As much as we would like to link the explosion in a St. Petersburg cafe to the Ukrainian special services or our partisans in Russia, it is more likely to be the result of a confrontation between the various forces in Russia that have already begun to divide the already patchwork quilt of the sub-empire.

At least two facts lead to this conclusion. Right before the terrorist attack that killed the “hero of the occasion,” “military blogger” and former criminal Vladlen Tatarsky, another “hero of our time,” Igor Strelkov, published a manifesto of the “club of angry patriots.” “We are heading for military defeat,” the former 'reconstructionist' and one of the initiators of the terrorist L/DPR said. It is difficult to suspect Strelkov/Girkin of sympathizing with Putin's regime; on the contrary, he has consistently and reasonably (of course, from his own bell tower) criticized Kremlin strategists for the failed 'Ukrainian campaign.' Together with Girkin, the 'surrender manifesto' was signed by Donetsk collaborator Pavel Gubarev, propagandist Maxim Kalashnikov, and other equally odious characters.

Therefore, the explosion in the cafe, which is now formally owned by the Cyber Z Front propaganda movement, and the death of the 'war correspondent' could be a reaction of the FSB to the excessive activity of 'angry patriots.' However, given that the cafe used to belong to Putin's 'chef' Yevgeny Prigozhin, who, to put it mildly, is also vocal about the methods and tactics of the official Ministry of Defense, the fatal statuette stuffed with TNT could have been a greeting to him as well. After all, a few weeks ago, it was the owner of the Wagner PMC who spoke in favor of creating a political movement, the so-called 'party of war correspondents,' designed to 'correct' the situation on the Western front.

One should not, however, think that all these 'Prigozhins,' 'Girkins,' and the already killed 'Tatarskys' aim to end the war in Ukraine and thus reform post-Putin Russia. On the contrary, these 'radicals' will lay down their bodies and souls to preserve the status quo of Russia within its current borders, anticipating that the strategy and constant f*ckups of the current Kremlin master will lead to the collapse of Russia. Because these people are refined imperialists and chauvinists, haters of the West, 'keepers' of the traditional 'values of the Russian world.'

“One should not, however, think that all these Prigozhins, Girkins, and the already killed Tatarskys aim to end the war in Ukraine and thus reform post-Putin Russia. On the contrary, these 'radicals' will lay down their bodies and souls to preserve the status quo of Russia within its current borders, anticipating that the strategy and constant fuckups of the current Kremlin master will lead to the collapse of Russia. Because these people are refined imperialists and chauvinists, haters of the West, 'keepers' of the traditional 'values of the Russian world.'”

We should also mention one more figure, this time from the official Kremlin deck, the Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev. His interview a few days ago with Rossiyskaya Gazeta, not much noticed by the Ukrainian media, is also an 'angry manifesto,' not of a war correspondent, but of a high-ranked official from the Kremlin. In general, Patrushev (or his son) is predicted to play the role of Putin's heirs. But with such 'heirs,' in my opinion, it is better not to have any... Having 'destroyed' the 'rotten West' and the 'United States' to begin with (the head of the Russian Security Council is probably reflecting on his own fears, speaking of a possible 'civil war' between the southern and northern states of America), Patrushev went further. He declared Russia to be 'a historical defender of the sovereignty and statehood of any nations that have asked for its help.' This time, however, Russia will not be 'saving' the United States, although, according to the Secretary of the Russian Security Council, it has 'a unique weapon with which it can destroy any enemy.'

Patrushev apparently doesn't voice his own political ambitions, but the very fact of the surge in his media activity indicates that if the opportunity to 'participate' arises, he and his entourage will willingly compete for a seat in the Kremlin.

“Patrushev apparently doesn't voice his own political ambitions, but the very fact of the surge in his media activity indicates that if the opportunity to 'participate' arises, he and his entourage will willingly compete for a seat in the Kremlin.”

The so-called 'liberal opposition,' which is known in Ukraine as 'good Russians', did not stand aside. At the end of March, the Free Russia Forum was held, an anti-war conference in Riga, where 'liberals' voiced their own vision of the future of the 'fatherland.' Of course, they support an international arrest warrant for Putin, because, obviously, removing the main rival in the struggle for power, and even by someone else's hands, is sacred. To the human eye, PARNAS, Open Russia, Solidarity, Yabloko, and the Party of Change all support the payment of reparations to the victorious Ukraine and the democratization of the Russian Federation. I would like to emphasize the latter – the 'federation,' that is, the empire within its current borders. Because the most liberal Russian liberals are the same imperialists as their opponents, only in 'democratic' wrappings.

But, as I wrote recently, a powerful separatist movement with a similar name, the Forum of Free Peoples of Russia, is maturing in Russia. And this force speaks of an unequivocal deconstruction of the empire, its division into nation states. As for me, this is a very well-reasoned and logical position for the world. Only a divided, disarmed, denazified, deputinized Russia will be at least some kind of guarantee against the reincarnation of the empire. And, therefore, the key to avoiding global wars caused by Russian ambitions.

About the author. Ihor Hulyk, journalist and editor-in-chief of the Espreso website. 

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.