Russia intensifies activity near Bakhmut, but Ukrainian army holds favorable positions. Weekly military results
The Ukrainian army may have moved some of their forces to the Avdiivka area and to the Kupyansk direction. Therefore, the enemy decided to take advantage of the situation and intensify hostilities, especially in the area of Klishchiivka
Fighting around Bakhmut
On November 9, there were 30 combat clashes in the area of Bakhmut, which is a significant number. The Russian army has seized a water reservoir in the area of Berkhivka, just north of Bakhmut. The invaders believe they have some success there. It is known that there were quite active counterattacks in the area of Klishchiivka and Andriivka. Probably, there was a situation when Ukrainian troops moved part of their forces to the area of Avdiivka and Kupyansk. Therefore, the Russians decided that there might be an opportunity to use these options and intensify hostilities, especially in the Klishchiivka area. But the positions held by the Ukrainian troops there are quite favorable for them because they are on the heights.
Klishchiivka is located in a lowland, and Russia's attempts to re-enter it or get closer to the positions they previously held are, frankly, quite beneficial for Ukraine. By combining the potential of artillery and the effectiveness of assault groups, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are now actively destroying the Russian forces. I think this story will continue for some time. But Bakhmut is not an area where Russia can have any success.
Bridgehead expansion on the Kherson region's left bank
The crossing of the Dnipro River from the right to the left bank is an extremely complex logistical operation. In 2020, the Ukrainian army practiced airdrop in the Krynky area during a training exercise with the British. At that time, pontoon crossings were set up and equipment was actually transported from the right bank to the left. Now we are seeing a conditional coincidence when one of the bridgeheads that Ukrainian troops are currently occupying, particularly on the left bank near Krynky, is very close to the area where the Ukrainian army used to train.
Indeed, Ukrainian marine units and groups are operating on the left bank of the Dnipro. There are three bridgeheads there, so to speak. In particular, near the two Antonivka bridges, a railroad bridge and a road bridge. They are destroyed, but in the places where these bridges approach the left bank, there are areas that are important to hold and they are held by Ukrainian units. Krynky were added to the list, which is a bit east of these footholds. Amidst this, measures are being taken to make the enemy feel in significant danger. The actions of Ukraine's small groups are supported from the right bank by artillery and electronic warfare systems, which do not allow the Russian army to operate effectively there.
The accumulation of forces on the left bank is a complex process. There is no point in saying that any major advance will take place in the near future. However, the direction of the Ukrainian army's actions is of some concern to the Russian enemy. Russia is moving forces here from other directions, which is important from the point of view of the overall situation on the front line. The directions are complicated everywhere, and Russia's and Ukraine's reserves are limited. Therefore, it is very significant that the Russian army does not have the opportunity to maneuver its forces and means, which is one of the tasks for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Situation around Robotyne
President Zelenskyy, speaking at a conference in New York, said that Ukraine has actually developed a very specific plan for 2024.
The "minimum task" set for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi said, is to ensure the advance to Tokmak, which is an significant logistics hub. At the moment, the concentration of Ukraine's forces in the Robotyne area is a 10-kilometer section that is not yet expanding along the front, although there are some positive changes. This is precisely the leveling of the ledge that was near Verbove. There was a ledge there that the Ukrainian soldiers cut down.
According to foreign observers, this resembles a "war for an inch". That is, the advance is rather insignificant in terms of the overall plans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. But on the other hand, this advance is associated with significant Russian losses in all areas of the front, particularly on the southern front. For example, yesterday 1080 invaders were killed. In the morning, about 800 enemies were destroyed. These figures are significant for the Russian Federation.
Avdiivka remains the hottest area of the frontline. The Russian army has managed to cross the railroad that runs north of Avdiivka. They have now crossed the railroad from Krasnohorivka and are trying to gain a foothold. This situation can be remedied by counterattacks from the Ukrainian side, but it will depend on the amount of forces and means available to the Ukrainian side.
Russia is probably waiting for the ground to dry out and to use armored vehicles in addition to assault operations. Although these two massive armored offensives were extremely negative for them, given the number of losses they suffered, primarily in armored vehicles. Therefore, the situation remains difficult in any case. Ukraine's main task remains to ensure effective interaction between units, artillery support, and logistics for Ukraine's garrison, which is actually located in two settlements - Stepove and Sieverne, which are not really close to each other, and this indicates the effectiveness of Ukraine's defense. But nevertheless, it poses a threat to this logistics road that goes to Horlivka and is the main one.
The Estonian intelligence briefing concluded that Russia has seized the initiative or is trying to do so in Luhansk and Donetsk regions in two areas. Luhansk region is the area of Kupyansk, where the Russian army conducts regular assault operations in the direction of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. But there is no such change on the map there. Now, relatively speaking, the approaches to building a defense do not allow the Russian military to advance primarily to the road between Kupyansk and Svatove. This is exactly one of Russia's tasks, either to cut this road, which affects the supply of Ukrainian troops in this area, and then try to push Ukrainian forces to the Oskil River and occupy the entire territory. This is an old story, it actually borders on active hostile attacks, but I don't see such significant changes in Russia's favor.