Russia can forget about seizing all of Donbas after Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive in Kharkiv region: Serhii Zgurets' column

The situation in the Kharkiv region won't end the war, but it will radically change its course in Ukraine's favor

Starting last week, a black streak began for the Russian army in the war with Ukraine. Ukraine's Armed Forces inflicted an operational defeat on the Russian army and were able to recapture almost the entire Kharkiv region in a swift counteroffensive. The Russian occupiers flee and lose a very large number of weapons. According to preliminary data, the occupiers lost more than 125 tanks, BMPs, and armored personnel carriers. However, there is still no data on captured enemy equipment. It is significant that some of the captured equipment and weapons remained intact and will be used against the Russians by the Ukrainian units. So, we can state that the situation in the Kharkiv region will not end the war, but will radically change its course in favor of Ukraine. This conclusion is very optimistic, but one can definitely agree that after the flight of the Russian army from the Kharkiv region, Russia's ability to seize the entire Donbas already belongs to the category of fiction. Because, for example, the city of Izyum was an important supply and logistics hub for the entire northern front for the Russian army. After the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, the Russian army's offensive operations on Bakhmut and around the city of Donetsk lose their meaning. Such offensive actions will not have support from the north.

Russia doesn't have the forces and means to strengthen the line of defense in the Kharkiv region

What happens next? The Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region created a kind of zugzwang for the military leadership of the Russian Federation. On the one hand, the Russians will do everything possible to stop the Ukrainian army's offensive in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. The Russian Ministry of Defense has already drawn a new line of defense that runs along the Oskil River. They just drew and nothing more. After all, this line of defense needs to be filled with forces and means, which is definitely not enough in Russia. This applies, first of all, to trained infantry and commanders of the lower and middle ranks. The enemy can transfer troops from the Donetsk region and southern Ukraine to form and consolidate a line of defense along this river. However, such a maneuver will significantly weaken other directions of the front.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive actions in the Kharkiv region as of September 12.

In Russia, they are looking for those responsible for the failure of the Russian army in the Kharkiv region.

In Russia, they have already started looking for those responsible for the failure of the Russian army in the Kharkiv region. Many see the Russian Defense Minister Shoigu as the culprit in this situation. However, I do not think that this will happen, because in order to find the culprits, one must first admit defeat. That is why the defeat of the Russian army is presented by the propaganda media as a regrouping of troops. And they provide such information without any explanation.

The Russians on Dnipro's right bank are trying to negotiate a surrender

Due to the Ukrainian Armed Forces' operational success in the Kharkiv region, the situation in the south began to be talked about less, but this does not mean that the Ukrainian army does not have success in this direction. Combat operations to liberate Southern Ukraine from the Russian occupiers continue. These hostilities continue on land with the support of Ukrainian aviation and long-range artillery. There are several main directions of Ukrainian strikes. In particular, in the area of ​​Vysokopillya, Sukhyi Stavok, and in the direction of the road between Mykolaiv and Kherson. There are positional battles. The Russian enemy is partially demoralized, but continues to resist. During the last two weeks, the units of Ukraine's Armed Forces were able to advance to a distance of 4 to several tens of kilometers. Also, the bridges on Dnipro's right bank remain under constant fire control. Therefore, the situation for the enemy on Dnipro's right bank looks very difficult. And here there are two interesting situations. The Russians on Dnipro's right bank are trying to negotiate a surrender. Nataliya Gumenyuk, the spokeswoman of Operational Command South reported this today. On the other hand, the enemy continues to try to transfer equipment and resources to this part of the front.

The situation in Southern Ukraine as of September 12.