Putin recognizes disorder in army, destructive impact of sanctions, but won't stop aggression in Ukraine

The Financial Times reports that the entire top leadership of the Kremlin learned of the invasion only when they saw Putin announce the 'special military operation' (war - ed.) on television that morning. 

Later, Russian oligarchs gathered in the Kremlin. Everyone was completely confused, said a person who attended the event.

One of the oligarchs asked Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov how Putin could have planned such a large-scale invasion in such a small circle that most senior Kremlin officials, the economic cabinet, and its business elite did not believe it was even possible. “He has three advisors,” Lavrov replied, “Ivan the Terrible. Peter the Great. And Catherine the Great.”

According to Putin's invasion plan, Russian troops were supposed to capture Kyiv in a matter of days in a lightning-fast, relatively bloodless blitzkrieg. Instead, the war turned out to be a quagmire of historic proportions for Russia. 

Even as the enormous cost of the invasion to Russia becomes apparent to Putin, the Kremlin leader is more determined than ever to see it through, people who know him say. “The idea was never that hundreds of thousands of people would die. It went horribly wrong,” a former senior Russian official said. 

Putin is looking for new arguments to justify the military action, insisting that he had no choice but to continue the invasion by any means necessary.

According to the former government official, Putin tells people close to him: “It turns out that we were completely unprepared. The army is a mess. Our industry is in disarray. But it's good that we learned about this now, not when NATO invades us.”

People who know Putin describe him as a leader who has become even more isolated since the war began. “Stalin was a villain, but a good manager because he could not be fooled. But no one can tell Putin the truth,” says one. “People who don't trust anyone start to trust a very small number of people who lie to them.”

It is also reported that Putin's isolation deepened during the Covid-19 pandemic. At the time, he was largely cut off from the relatively liberal, pro-Western confidants who had previously been in touch with him. Instead, he spent his first few months at his Valdai residence with close oligarch Yuri Kovalchuk, who inspired Putin to reflect on his historical mission to reassert Russia's greatness, much like Peter the Great.

In addition, when Putin began to develop plans for a possible invasion, his friend Viktor Medvedchuk insisted that Ukrainians would welcome Russian troops with open arms.

One part of the plan involved the participation of fugitive President Viktor Yanukovych. He was to deliver a video message that would give Medvedchuk the legitimacy to govern Ukraine with the support of Russia.

As the war continues to heat up, Putin has begun to realize the extent of Russia's miscalculations, prompting him to seek more information from people at lower levels, people who know him say.

Sometimes, Putin used information from his unofficial channels to publicly expose high-ranking officials.

Putin's newfound skepticism, however, is limited by his reluctance to admit that the invasion was his mistake in the first place, the sources say. Some of the liberal officials who oppose the war are trying to persuade him to end it, pointing to the economic damage that sanctions are likely to cause to the Russian economy.

But Putin tells them that he has already calculated the costs. He says: “We are paying a huge price, I understand. We underestimated how difficult this could be.”

“But how can you convince a madman? His brain will collapse if he realizes it was a mistake,” the source concluded.