Putin prepares new failure

Everything you need to know about the new Russian offensive: they are not capable of seriously changing the situation on the battlefield, it is just another pathetic attempt to seize the initiative on the eve of the AFU counteroffensive.

"They will focus on two directions: might be the East, might be the South... Given their obsession with symbols, they might try something for February 24," Defense Minister Reznikov recently said.

Putin can still organize a show-off offensive from the territory of the Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk regions to scatter the AFU forces. Sumy and Chernihiv might then be under threat. Ukrainian military and the American Institute for the Study of War experts have such an opinion.

Politicians, from President Zelenskyy to Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, assume a major offensive  ("Russia aims to surround Ukraine, so there might be activity from Belarus into the north of Ukraine to surround Kyiv"). Obviously, this rhetoric is rather aimed at Western politicians.

“Russians are forced to simulate a breakthrough, since in 2-4 months the AFU will have a lot more powerful weapons in service.The Ukrainian army will then be absolutely unbreakable”

There are two scenarios on the offensive beginning dates. 

“They can repeat” it on February 24 as a symbolic date.

Or they will advance when the soil dries. After all, their little tanks can’t proceed on wet ground. This was also the case last year, when Putin's "denazification" was postponed for several weeks.

Mordor is not ready to attack, this is the last convulsion.

Russians are forced to simulate a breakthrough, since in 2-4 months the AFU will have a lot more powerful weapons in service.The Ukrainian army will then be absolutely unbreakable. Now they have an advantage in terms of numbers. Reznikov says that there are nearly 500 000 Russian soldiers.

“Intercepted Russian conversations indicate shortage of shells and armor. The Kremlin will use its traditional tactic of littering fields with corpses to achieve its ephemeral goals”

This is why Ukraine and its Western partners are talking about a "large-scale offensive": although real attempts to break through are expected mainly in the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia region, they are ready to send their soldiers to slaughter anywhere.

Intercepted Russian conversations indicate shortage of shells and armor. The Kremlin will use its traditional tactic of littering fields with corpses to achieve its ephemeral goals.

Delaying the offensive works in our favor: every day the AFU receive more equipment. We expect tanks and even aircraft.

Source

About the author: Orest Sokhar, journalist, Obozrevatel chief editor.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.