Putin may eliminate Lukashenko to drag Belarus into war against Ukraine - Robert Lansing Institute for Global Threats and Democracies Studies

This was reported by the Robert Lansing Institute for Global Threats and Democracies Studies.

According to sources in the Russian military leadership, the Kremlin has come up with a radical solution to the issue of involving Belarus in the war against Ukraine.

On the instructions of the Russian leader Vladimir Putin after his return from the last CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) summit, the Russian military intelligence may try in the coming days to develop a scenario that involves either an assassination attempt on Alexander Lukashenko or an imitation, with the aim of finally intimidating him and finally prompting him to order his troops to start participating directly in the war against Ukraine together with Russian troops.

The Russian Main Intelligence Directorate is considering a scenario that involves the assassination of Lukashenko, as a result of which his duties will be assigned to the current CSTO Secretary General Stanislav Zas, who is completely loyal to Russia and controlled by the Intelligence Directorate .

According to this scenario, shortly after that Zas should announce the accession of Belarus to Russia with the rights of an autonomous entity, allegedly in order to prevent a military threat from Ukraine and Poland.  At the same time, the propaganda narrative that the assassination attempt on Lukashenka was organized by Washington will unfold.

Such plans may indicate that Moscow now views the CSTO as an ineffective organization and is betting on trying to gain full control over CSTO member states by ensuring their integration into Russia or forcing them to join a new version of the USSR.

Under both scenarios of an assassination attempt on Lukashenko, fabricated "evidence of the involvement of Ukraine and Poland under the leadership of NATO intelligence" will be presented, which will give a formal reason for the participation of the Belarusian army in the war against Ukraine.

The Lansing Institute notes that the Main Intelligence Directorate is leaning towards the scenario with the assassination of Lukashenko and the appointment of Zas. The intelligence argument is that the self-proclaimed leader of Belarus will understand who is really behind the assassination attempt.  After that, increasing anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western rhetoric, Lukashenko will continue to maneuver, evading direct participation of Belarus in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine.

Analysts of the Lansing Institute note that since Russian troops are already stationed in Belarus and sabotage groups have been sent there, Lukashenko has a high risk of losing his position and being replaced by a Russian puppet leader in the near future.

"Russia is likely to stage armed provocations in Belarus to push Lukashenko to war. But the fear of losing power will remain a key obstacle for him to take this step. The latest reports coming from sources in Moscow confirm earlier findings by analysts at the Institute and point to the benefit of a dramatic scenario for Alexander Lukashenko," the Lansing Institute concluded.