Putin intends to annex occupied territories to blackmail Ukraine with nuclear weapons - US analysts

The Institute for the Study of War shared the details.

ISW analysts have concluded that the Russian dictator probably intends to annex the occupied Ukrainian territories in the coming months.

Putin will then state, directly or indirectly, that Russia's doctrine, which allows the use of nuclear weapons to protect Russia's integrity, applies to these annexed territories.

"Such actions threaten Ukraine and its partners with a nuclear attack if Ukraine's counter-offensive to liberate Russian-occupied territories continues. Putin may believe that the threat or use of nuclear weapons will restore Russian deterrence after its catastrophic invasion destroys Russia's usual deterrent capabilities," analyst explained.

The timing of the annexation depends on when Putin realizes the inability of Russian troops to hold the occupied territories.

"The Russian military hasn't yet achieved Putin's stated territorial goals in Donetsk and Luhansk regions and is unlikely to achieve them. If Putin realizes his military weakness, he's likely to hasten the annexation and quickly introduce nuclear deterrence, trying to maintain control over Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia," ISW said.

Ukraine and its Western partners have a narrow window of opportunity to support a counteroffensive before the Kremlin announces annexation. "Ukraine and the West must develop a coherent plan to respond to any annexation and threat of a nuclear attack that may follow. The West's support for an immediate Ukrainian counteroffensive is now vital," ISW concluded.