Putin drags out war until 2024 election, hoping new US leader will cut Ukraine aid 

CNN reported this, citing four US officials.

One US official said they have “no doubt” that Putin is “trying to hold out” until the 2024 election. 

Another source familiar with the intelligence said “Putin knows Trump will help him. And so do the Ukrainians and our European partners,” the source said. “So even though we haven’t seen anything explicitly to that effect, you have to assume, I believe, that everyone is thinking it.”

A European diplomat told CNN that they believe Russia trying to ride out the war in Ukraine until the US election “is exactly Putin’s plan.”

A CNN poll conducted by SSRS that was released on Friday found most Americans oppose Congress providing additional funding to support Ukraine.

Overall, 55% say the US Congress should not authorize additional funding to support Ukraine vs. 45% who say Congress should authorize such funding. And 51% say that the US has already done enough to help Ukraine while 48% say it should do more. 

A poll conducted in the early days of the Russian invasion in late February 2022 found 62% who felt the US should have been doing more.

Officials who spoke to CNN on condition of anonymity believe that Putin could be eyeing a win by Trump, or another Republican candidate, as a trigger for the US to pull back support for Ukraine.

Increasing pressure on the counteroffensive

The upcoming US presidential election has increased the pressure on Ukraine's counteroffensive, with Europeans, Americans, and Ukrainians all expecting for significant Ukrainian victories to influence Putin's calculations by the end of next year.

The American election was the subject of discussions among delegates at this year's G7 summit in Japan, according to the official, as leaders looked ahead to what could prove to be a key factor in the Ukraine war.

“Putting a shape on the US election will have an enormous effect” in how the war proceeds, the official said.

In the recent New York Times polling, Biden and Trump are locked in a tie, each with 43% of voters supporting them.

The US election is also on the minds of Ukrainians, two sources told CNN. They are hoping to make gains on the battlefield in the short-term that could change the dynamics at play sooner rather than later.

“The Ukrainians want to win or have something that changes due dynamic before late this year. There are all sorts of reasons for their urgency – such as Ukrainians dying everyday – but the US presidential election is one of them,” said Bill Taylor, the former US ambassador to Ukraine.

But so far the Ukrainian counteroffensive has not resulted in major breakthroughs.

“It has and will continue to be a tough fight for them,” Pentagon spokesperson Patrick Ryder said this week, noting broadly that the counteroffensive has moved forward.