Putin believes time is on his side in war - Estonian intelligence

Bloomberg reported the information citing a report by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.

"Putin is playing for time, believing that Ukraine and the West will wear out before Russia," the report says, adding that Putin believes he can use bombs to force Ukraine to the negotiating table. 

The report says that although Russia is unlikely to achieve a "quality leap" in its ability to wage war, the Russian president will not stop despite the setbacks in the first year of the invasion. A key factor for Russia is the weakening of support for Ukraine from allies such as the US and NATO. 

Estonian intelligence emphasizes that Putin's government shows no signs of weakness and is able to deploy the tools of "propaganda-induced imperialism," even though Russian military strategists have been caught off guard by Ukraine's ability to defend itself and the extent of US and EU sanctions.

The document specifically addresses a potential post-Putin Russia. As noted, there is no significant group that shares democratic values in Russia, instead, "radical" factions, including Wagner PMC owner Yevgeny Prigozhin and Ramzan Kadyrov, the militant head of Russia’s Chechnya region, are fighting for power.

At the same time, Estonian intelligence experts call Putin's authoritarian regime the Soviet Union 2.0, with “no new Gorbachev, not to mention Yeltsin, on the horizon."

"Russia’s elite is increasingly concerned that Putin “has gone mad, but most of them lack the courage to take real steps toward change,” the report says.

• On February 8, Bloomberg reported that Russia plans to undermine support for Ukraine in Europe through spreading fake news. Russia is creating fake front pages that mimic the visual style of European satirical magazines to attack Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.