Pro-Russian party may potentially win upcoming Slovakian election

News Insight explores the possible outcomes of Slovakia’s upcoming election.

Ahead of a pivotal election, the Progressive Slovakia party, committed to upholding a pro-EU and pro-Ukraine stance, has emerged as a significant rival to the pro-Russian frontrunner, the Smer party led by former Prime Minister Robert Fico. The upcoming September 30 election will see these parties compete, with Smer maintaining a lead at around 23% support, while Progressive Slovakia has risen to 17% according to an NMS Market Research poll. Both parties have surpassed the Hlas party in surveys, potentially making it a key player in the election outcome.

Former Prime Minister Fico's anti-NATO and pro-Russian views have diverged Smer from the EU mainstream, while Progressive Slovakia aims to safeguard democratic institutions and pro-EU values. Disinformation has played a role in the Slovak parliamentary election campaign, spreading false claims and impacting voter trust in traditional media.

Slovakia's stance towards Russia has shifted due to the conflict in Ukraine, with more citizens recognizing the EU and NATO as guarantors of safety and prosperity, and viewing Russia as a threat. However, the paradox remains that some Slovaks support pro-Russian parties despite the Russian hybrid political threat, potentially influenced by misinformation.

“Russian disinformation tactics are succeeding in polarizing society and jeopardizing continued support for Ukraine. In this context, Slovakia has become a breeding ground for the spread of Russian anti-NATO and anti-EU narratives,” News Insight claims.

The upcoming election’s key contenders and potential outcomes 

Fico's Smer party has adopted anti-NATO and Eurosceptic positions, appealing to growing anti-Western sentiments by criticizing EU sanctions against Russia and advocating for ending military support for Ukraine. The far-right parties Republika and SNS are aiming to form an anti-Western coalition with Smer, together accounting for over 14% of vote intentions.

Slovakia's political landscape is fragmented, and the election is expected to result in a divided parliament. The center-left Hlas party is positioned as a potential kingmaker, holding the key to forming a government. Former Prime Minister Pellegrini's Hlas party is committed to NATO membership and has rejected the idea of an anti-Western coalition with Smer.

The election's outcome will influence Slovakia's foreign policy stance, with potential alliances shaping the country's relationship with the EU and NATO. If pro-Russian groups come to power, Slovakia's alignment with the EU and NATO could weaken, impacting economic stability and foreign investment.

• Slovak media Dennik E reported that Slovakia's primary domestic weapons producers saw a 51% sales rise in 2022 compared to 2021, totaling EUR 396 million. The remarkable fourfold increase in profits compared to the previous year is attributed to the ongoing war and increased military support for Ukraine.