Poland is shooting itself in the foot by baning grain imports from Ukraine – analyst Yarmak

Andriy Yarmak, an agrarian market analyst, made the statement on Espreso TV, commenting on the Polish government's decision to suspend grain imports from Ukraine.  

"When they say "grain", it is not clear what they are talking about. After all, there are fodder grains that are used for feed, and food grains that are used to produce food for people. Ukraine exports mainly fodder grains, is the largest regional exporter (only North and South America have larger exporters), and is not as influential in the food grain industry," says Andriy Yarmak. 

"Therefore, first of all, it is worth noting Ukraine's significant influence on the world's feed industry and livestock. By the way, Poland, which is a powerful player in the livestock market, will only benefit from cheap feed from Ukraine, as it creates added value through milk and meat. Accordingly, the ban on grain imports from Ukraine is a direct shot in the foot. It means lost profits for livestock farmers and lost taxes for the Polish state." 

The main argument of the Polish farmers who demanded a ban on grain imports from Ukraine was the rapid decline in domestic market prices, which forced Polish farmers to sell their grain for almost nothing. 

"In fact, it was not Ukrainian grain that brought down prices on the Polish market. The grain market is globalized. If you look at the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) food indices, prices have been falling for many months. Why are prices falling? Because the global economy is de facto stagnating, if not in crisis," says Andriy Yarmak. "Falling real incomes and rising costs are forcing people to save. This leads to a decrease in demand, first of all, for meat and milk, and thus for animal feed, and thus for grain."

• Since February of this year, Polish farmers have repeatedly blocked checkpoints on the border with Ukraine. They claimed that Ukrainian grain, which was supposed to be transiting through Poland, was entering the Polish market, causing prices to plummet. 

• On April 7, Ukraine agreed to stop exporting grain to Poland.

• On April 15, official Warsaw approved a ban on the import of Ukrainian grain and other food products to Poland, including a ban on transit.