Orbán and entourage likely want money

After general European laughter at the archaic scarf, with which Prime Minister of Hungary tried to demonstrate his almost Árpád ambitions, Viktor Orbán felt something was not right. In particular, the fact that when he is mocked, for example, by Austrians, proved that in capitals of EU he is not perceived as serious politician, but rather as old, primitive populist. Because, apparently, both European officials and diplomats of Hungary's neighboring countries are already tired of reacting to Orbán's "extravagant" pranks, and they decided to use trolling - maybe, at least that's understandable.

Putin's long-time friend (and possibly a partner in case of aggression against Ukraine, because who knows what leader of the ruling Fidesz party meant when he hinted at the possible division of Ukraine) suddenly radically changed his rhetoric. At the Congress of International Union of Christian Democrats (CDI), where he is the vice-president, Orban spoke about the fact that "Europe is united in its goals, the main thing is that Russia does not pose a threat to the security of Europe. And for this we need sovereign Ukraine." But there were some "clarifications". They say, Hungary does have its own vision of restoring peace, which is different from Brussels, so Budapest will "continue to debate".

Of course, populist Orbán is forced to take into account the opinion of those who believe in him for many years and consistently vote for Fidesz. But pendulum of public opinion has recently swung in the wrong direction for prime minister. The majority of Hungarians do not share current head of government's pro-Russian policy, and those who are disappointed have increased by 17 percent since spring.

Citizens do not want to repeat for the third time sad experience of the last century, when their rulers chose wrong allies in world wars.  In the search for "Greater Hungary" there was only a sweet mention on Orbán's fan scarf. "Fatal" Trianon of 1920 is still well remembered, as is Admiral Horthy's vassal dependence on Hitler's Nazi regime.

Example is contagious. The other day, president of notorious pro-Russian Jobbik party, which cultivates xenophobia and anti-Semitism, Marton Diondyoshi, took to apologizing to Ukrainians for his visits to the terrorist separatist formations "LDNR".  He wouldn't do that again, Diondyoshi said. But Jesus, he found rather interesting excuse. For example, repeal of  language law (known as "Kivalov-Kolesnichenko law", passed during Yanukovych's time) by the government of Petro Poroshenko quite worried Hungarians. And so that they saw "only one country that recognized this problem and was ready to support us – with statements, politically, diplomatically, also protecting its minority in Ukraine. And that was Russia."  Well, excuse is really bad, especially when you take into account their visits to Crimea annexed by Russia even before the time of the fifth president of Ukraine.

Marton Dőndősi, like Viktor Orbán and other Hungarian populists, is interested in elections and ratings. They are very sensitive to moods of their citizens and to the movements of possible competitors. Thus, Katalin Novak, vice-president of Orbán Fidesz party, who is also president of Republic of Hungary, said in Kyiv that "Vladimir Putin's responsibility for this war is obvious, and Hungarians have always and in everything opposed this suffering and bloodshed. We are neighbors with Ukraine and our neighbors can count on us for help. Neighbors will always be neighbors."  At the same time, she mentioned Hungarians who defend Ukraine in the ranks of Ukrainian Armed Forces.

And mayor of Budapest, Gergey Korachon, directly stated that Orbán always needs "enemy" who can be blamed for "things going wrong." And Ukraine became this "enemy" for Fidesz leader. "Otherwise, they will have to admit that they are not managing country well," Korachon said. I note that Korachon is direct competitor of the ruling party.

But, in my opinion, money became the main motivator for Orban and his entourage to change their position regarding Ukraine.  Namely, 7.2 billion euros that Brussels froze because of Budapest's corruption and retreat from democracy. EU set Orbán a task of 27 points that his government must solve if it wants to receive these funds.

And this, apparently, is the reason of Hungarian silence regarding Ukrainian prospects in NATO.  In any case, at the last ministerial meeting in Bucharest, all 30 countries of Alliance agreed on the need to grant Ukraine membership in the North Atlantic union.

European Union found a way to profit from cooperation with Putin (in particular, in the supply of gas and lobbying for lifting of sanctions against Moscow) by Orbán's trick.  I think that Hungarians will soon put their leader before a choice: either a scarf with "Great Hungary" or majority in the parliament.

About the author: Ihor Hulyk, journalist, editor-in-chief of "Espreso. West" website.

The editors do not always share opinions expressed by the authors of blogs.