Ukraine's NATO membership doesn't guarantee end to war

“If Ukraine becomes a NATO member, it will end the war, because Russia will never dare to attack a NATO member.”

“Ukraine is now protecting the whole of Europe from Russian aggression; if Ukraine falls, our western neighbors or the Baltic states will be the next victims of Russian aggression.”

Ukrainians often express both of these theses in various discussions. The trouble is that they contradict each other.
 

Either the very fact of NATO membership provides guaranteed protection from Russian aggression, or it does not. If it does, NATO members have nothing to fear, no matter what happens to Ukraine. If it does not, Ukraine's membership in NATO does not guarantee the end of the war.
 

In my opinion, the latter is more correct. Although this weakens Ukraine's rhetorical position in terms of why it should be in NATO. 

"But, in fact, neither Crimea nor Donbas, nor even the whole of Ukraine is the ultimate goal of Russian expansion. Its ultimate goal is the process of expansion itself, including (but not limited to) by military means. And it will continue until Russia is torn from within. The only question is how to achieve this faster in today's world."

P.S. A third version was also expressed, in several options: “NATO with Ukraine is one NATO, and Russia will not attack it, and NATO without Ukraine is another NATO, and it will become Russia's next victim.” This is possible, but only if we consider NATO not as a “collective self-defense bloc” but as an offensive bloc that is also characterized by expansionism (exactly what Russia accuses this bloc of). The problem is that this implies a conscious rethinking of the very essence of NATO, something none of the NATO members are even close to being ready for.

Source

About the author. Oleksii Panych, philosopher, member of the Ukrainian Center of PEN International, blogger.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.