October 9-16 live war map: Russian counter-offensive in Kursk region and threat to Kurakhove - new challenges for AFU

Third wave of Russia’s counteroffensive in the Kursk region 

For the third consecutive week, the Russian Armed Forces have been conducting a counteroffensive in the Kursk region, where they have deployed over 50,000 troops. In some areas, the ratio of Ukrainian troops in confrontation with Russian forces reaches 1 to 10. As a result, this is currently the only section of the front where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are engaged in maneuver warfare rather than establishing a static frontline. As a result, the battlefield is highly dynamic, and the mapping of the fighting is somewhat conditional and not precise. 

This situation presents both advantages and disadvantages. On one hand, Ukrainian soldiers can safely retreat into the forest from specific settlements; on the other hand, it necessitates a high level of coordination. If coordination is poor, Russian forces could unexpectedly target Ukraine's rear units. Consequently, drone pilots have had to engage in close combat near the village of Zelyony Shlyakh.

Russia has concentrated most of its efforts to strike eastward from Korenevo to take control of the road running from Sudzha. The main idea behind Russia's offensive was to cut off the northern part of the Ukrainian army, which was stuck in the fighting near Korenevo and further north toward Lgov, from the southern part, which was based around Sudzha. If this plan had succeeded, the northern grouping of the Ukrainian Defense Forces would have been left without logistical support and at risk of encirclement. To this end, the Russian Armed Forces first attacked Lyubimovka, and having succeeded, developed an offensive on Zelyony Shlyakh, Novoivanovka, and Leonidovo. The depth of their breakthrough was over 10 km.

Ukrainian troops first retreated and then hit Russia's flanks from the north and south. As a result, some positions south of Lyubimovka and near Novoivanovka were recaptured. Currently, fighting continues in the area of Zelyony Shlyakh and Lyubimovka.

Despite the fact that Russia claimed to have surrounded 1,500 Ukrainian troops near Olgovka, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to regroup and restore logistics and some positions in this area of the front. However, Russian troops managed to unblock their units that were surrounded near Kreminna. Trends on this section of the front are such that Russia is trying to get as far east as possible, but constantly encounters Ukrainian ambushes and local counterattacks, losing a significant part of its personnel. However, if they manage to cut not only the road from Sudzha to Korenevo, but also from Sudzha to Lgov, for example, in the area of Malaya Loknya, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be forced to curtail or reformat their northern front. Although this is not currently the case, as the Ukrainian Armed Forces have stabilized the most critical areas, the situation is changing every day.

East of Sudzha, the contact line remained relatively stable. The Russian Armed Forces continue to unsuccessfully storm Plyokhovo, Russkaya Konopelka and Nechaev. The Ukrainian Defense Forces have slightly retreated in the area of Kireyevka and Kauchuk. 

On the western front of the Kursk region, Russian forces have pushed Ukrainian troops back south of Glushkovo and are advancing on Ukrainian positions near Veseloye. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are attacking in the direction of Sukhinovka.

Kupyansk evacuated and fortified as Ukrainian Forces Prepare for defense

The first wake-up call for Kupyansk came with the unexpected breakthrough by Russian troops through the forest west of Synkivka, reaching the outskirts of Petropavlivka. Although a Ukrainian counterattack forced the Russians back to their original positions, the incident remains alarming. Over the past few months, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost several positions in the Synkivka area, allowing Russia to inch closer to Kupyansk. As a result, a full civilian evacuation was announced in Kupyansk, which has been enduring KAB attacks for more than a year.

To the south of the city, Russian troops advanced several hundred meters more in a week and reached the outskirts of Kruhliakivka. The northern part of the village has already fallen into the gray zone, and Russians have less than a kilometer to go before reaching the Oskil river bank…

Russia breaks through defense line in Chasiv Yar

The situation in the city has significantly worsened. After months of attempts to cross the canal and secure positions on the other side, Russian troops finally succeeded in two directions simultaneously. The first breakthrough occurred earlier near Kalynivka, but Ukrainian Defense Forces managed to counter it. However, the Russian army expanded its penetration by advancing south of Hryhorivka. In this area, Russian forces reached the canal along a 2 km stretch, substantially increasing the risk of a breakthrough. This development also presents a real opportunity for Russian troops to begin bypassing Chasiv Yar from the north.

Another breakthrough of the canal took place near the intersection of the road from Bakhmut. Here, Russian troops, moving along the road, managed to penetrate Ukraine's defense for a kilometer, but it is not yet clear whether they will be able to hold this foothold, as the Ukrainian Defense Forces have launched a counteroffensive. Nevertheless, both breakthroughs, as well as the deteriorating situation in the area of Klishchiivka, could critically affect the defense capability of Chasiv Yar in general, and the consequences could exceed the loss of Avdiivka.

Ukraine is losing Toretsk  

Russian forces now control over 50% of Toretsk, with fierce battles raging for every house in the city center. The Ukrainian Defense Forces launched several local counterattacks, recapturing some lost positions, but by the end of the week, Russia managed to capture a central neighborhood. To the south of Toretsk, Ukrainian forces are holding back Russian troops on the border of the Zabalka neighborhood, where Russian forces aim to break through in an attempt to flank the city and encircle the defenders in Nelipivka.

Another part of the Russian soldiers bypassed Nelipivka from the west, directing their attacks toward Leonidivka. In a week, they managed to advance 1.5 kilometers to the north. This maneuver also threatens Toretsk with flanking attacks in the future. Nevertheless, the speed of the Russian advance on this section of the front is rather slow, and the resources involved are insufficient for rapid frontline breakthroughs. However, the Ukrainian Defense Forces cannot turn the situation in their favor here either.

Pokrovsk front holds the line

Only minor territorial changes occurred in the Pokrovsk sector over the week, but the threats remained the same. After the Russian Armed Forces managed to force the Zhuravka River north of Hrodivka, they completed the occupation of Krasnyi and Krutyi Yar, as well as Mykolaivka. Russia has created an opportunity to attack Myrnohrad. As a result, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are already forced to repel the first attacks on the outskirts of Myrnohrad, in particular on the village of Promin.  

Despite all Russia's attempts to break through to Selydove, Ukrainian soldiers managed to repel all attacks. Russians continue their attempts to bypass the town from the north, from Novohrodivka, and from the south, from Tsukuryne. In Tsukuryne itself, the Ukrainian Armed Forces still hold positions in the western part of the town, but the situation is rather uncertain and tends to deteriorate. From Tsukuryne, the Rusian army is storming both to the west and to the south, where it has already expanded the gray zone to the outskirts of Izmailivka.

Although Russia sent significant forces to storm Bazhane Druhe, the Ukrainian Defense Forces managed to hold out for another week and not give up Ukrainian land in the Nevelske pocket.  

Kurakhove is less than 1 km away  

Russian forces have nearly captured the village of Hostre and have broken through to the village of Ostrivske, just 1 km from Kurakhove. Urban fighting is likely to start soon if Russian troops attempt to storm Kurakhove from this less favorable direction. However, they are more likely to move south to encircle the defenders in Maksymilianivka and then launch an offensive on Kurakhove from the east. Despite this, the front line in Maksymilianivka itself has remained unchanged for several weeks.

On the southern section of the Kurakhove front, Russia made a kilometer-long advance near Katerynivka. Fighting broke out in the eastern part of the village. Russian troops also managed to move the front line even further to Bohoyavlenka, moving from both Vuhledar and Vodiane. At the same time, from Prechystivka towards Novoukrainka, the Ukrainian Defense Forces managed to stabilize the front line and prevent any territorial changes. However, Russians focused most of their efforts on advancing toward Velyka Novosilka, which became their new priority target.

Velyka Novosilka: the last bastion in the southern part of the Donetsk front

Within a week, Russia finally occupied Zolota Nyva, although it failed to do so in early 2022. These days, it has expanded its zone of control by 3.5 km from east to west and 4 km from south to north. In the future, they plan to advance between the Kashlahach and Shaitanka rivers until they come close to storming Velyka Novosilka. At the same time, they are putting pressure on Ukrainian defenders in Makarivka and have also activated their left flank, where they have expanded their control zone near Pryiutne by 4 sq km. From here, Russians will try to break through to Levadne and Novodarivka, which were liberated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces last summer. So far, in 2 days, the Russian Armed Forces have moved 4 kilometers to the west and started fighting for Levadne. It seems that the Ukrainian Defense Forces were not ready to stop Russian troops in this area.

Along with the negative trends at the front, there was one positive event that could become a landmark for the entire war. A Ukrainian F-16 shot down Russia's newest fighter-bomber, a Su-34 missile-carrying aircraft. Now Ukraine’s General Staff has taken a risk, and perhaps is working on a new scheme to combat the KABs. If a systemic solution is found, Ukraine will be able to say that the course of the war has changed in its favor.

The maps were created using data from the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces and other verified sources. However, they are approximate and conditionally reflect trends in the war zone.