About Hungarian-Slovak threats, or how Ukraine caused problems for itself

1. This will not affect the market's fuel supply. Ukraine receives up to 10% (at the peak) from this direction, and it has the logistics capacity to bring in at least 50% more. However, these capabilities are due to a comprehensive supply system that will not be bolstered if the area is lost.

2. Ukraine is a significant customer for MOL, which owns refineries in Hungary and Slovakia. Losing this market would be detrimental. This is evident from the cessation of discussions about potentially halting electricity supplies from Hungary. This is their considerable money.

And when Russian oil ceases to flow (these sanctions exemptions are not forever), they will need Ukrainian business even more. However, once Ukraine gains access to the “big water,” it is likely to move away from Hungarian-Slovak imports, which are quite expensive.

3. Ukraine has ample grounds to impose sanctions and explain their rationale, which would be understood both domestically and internationally. However, Ukraine did not provide prior warning to Europe and remains silent on the issue. While some sanctions have been imposed on Lukoil, a private Russian company, no measures have been taken against Rosneft, a state-owned company also involved in the Druzhba pipeline. Additionally, Tatneft, which has closer ties to the Kremlin and is involved in the defense industry in Tatarstan, including the assembly of Shahed UAVs, has not been sanctioned either.

4. Ukraine has introduced measures, but the oil supply has not decreased. Instead of Lukoil, other suppliers have taken its place. It seems Lukoil has shifted to selling its oil via maritime routes. Ukraine hasn't gained anything from this situation and has been accused of undermining Europe's energy security. In terms of media and reputation, Ukraine appears to be the loser. This, I believe, is one of the main objectives of this special operation.

5. Another question arises: who did this on Ukraine's part and why did they do it and set the country up like this?

Source

About the author. Serhiy Kuiun, head of the A-95 consulting company

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.