On sociology, elections, and Zelenskyy

Let's start with a quote. When asked what will happen if Zelenskyy does not run for a second term, Antypovych said: "This is a terrible question. When I look at some of the trust ratings, I realise that there is an emptiness there. If he is not running, then there is no one there. I have all the ratings of people's trust that can be measured somehow. It is necessary to ensure that if the president does not go to the polls, he must already prepare a successor. Because this state will simply fall apart if he does not run for election. This is my point of view."

What do I have to say about this?

1. Ukraine has proven its viability and independence of its survival from specific names in office. We have had 6 presidents, more than 20 heads of the Cabinet of Ministers, and countless other top officials. But Ukraine did not die without any of them. Because the state mechanism and society are much more complex than it often seems to an uninformed observer. And that is why Ukraine survived the spring of 2014, and why it is holding on in the face of a full-scale war. I'm not going to devalue the achievements or ignore the failures of Turchynov (acting president), Poroshenko, and Zelenskyy, but the country survived mainly not through their efforts. A republic - and we are a republic - is the common cause of its citizens.

“The state mechanism and society are much more complex than it often seems to an uninformed observer. And that is why Ukraine survived the spring of 2014, and why it is holding on in the face of a full-scale war”

2. Ukrainian society and the Ukrainian voter have never disappointed me - the cycle of "admiration" for someone is quite short. And Volodymyr Oleksandrovych (Zelenskyy- ed.), although he may well be re-elected for a second term, if he does not demonstrate a miracle after the war (and he will not, because it is impossible), will quickly lose the level of unconditional support that is now determined by extraordinary circumstances. As he was already losing his rating - systematically - before February 24.

The fundamental difference between the Ukrainian socio-political system and the Russian one is that in Russia, personalities run the show, while in Ukraine, archetypes do. Ukrainian elections are almost always won by "magicians". The one who promises "steps towards people," "jails for bandits," "a new way of life," or all at once. And quickly. And they lose the election, but as "unprincipled hucksters" to other "magicians." Yes, the demands of Ukrainian voters are often quite infantile, but Ukrainians are not attached to personalities (most often), but to their own expectations. Often overstated, but quite understandable.

“The fundamental difference between the Ukrainian socio-political system and the Russian one is that in Russia, personalities run the show, while in Ukraine, archetypes do”

Therefore, even if Volodymyr Zelenskyy says before the next presidential election that he will take a break from the presidency and take care of his family, his place will very quickly be taken by others. Who, just like him, may be completely unexpected candidates for the current observer.

And even if we are talking about his second term. People almost never vote for previous achievements. People vote based on the promise of the future - bright (which can be achieved by supporting a candidate) or dark (which can be avoided, respectively). People vote based on dreams and fears, in short. Whether Zelenskyy will be able to offer slogans that voters will believe in again after the war is still an open question. And the level of situational trust has nothing to do with it.

Ukraine is better than being fascinated by anyone. It doesn't matter what his last name is. Zelenskyy. Poroshenko. Petrenko. Or Ivanenko.

And so to read what I read from a respected sociologist about "tragedy because there is emptiness behind him" is very much weird.

Source

About the author. Yuriy Bohdanov, publicist, specialist in strategic communications in business, public administration and politics

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.