On despair of Russian elites

The Russian elites are completely disoriented because it is absurd and nonsensical that Putin would publicly speak out loud about the prospects of dismembering Russia, and in detail, as an objective reality.

Can you imagine Biden publicly talking about his concern about the prospects of Texas seceding and falling under Mexican control? Or (closer to Putin) Brezhnev, who talks about China's annexation of Primorsky Krai? Or imagine Xi expressing concern about the possibility of China being divided between India, Japan, and Mongolia, and "there will be no such ethnic group as the Chinese – there will be Han, Huizu, or Bai?" Nonsense.

And a separate point: it wasn't propagandist Solovyov who spoke about the prospects of dismemberment, not even Putin’s spokesman Peskov or the drunkard Medvedev. The Russian president consciously (well, at least he was conscious while doing it) set a very specific vector for the development of events: get ready, you will not be citizens of the Russian Federation for long. Soon you will be citizens of Muscovy, the countries of the Idel-Ural...

“It wasn't propagandist Solovyov who spoke about the prospects of dismemberment, not even Putin’s spokesman Peskov or the drunkard Medvedev. The Russian president consciously (well, at least he was conscious while doing it) set a very specific vector for the development of events: get ready, you will not be citizens of the Russian Federation for long”

This is an obvious bad decision: you cannot publicly formulate and give specific features to events whose occurrence is undesirable. Because everything that is voiced begins to be unwittingly thought about by the audience, enters the Overton window (range of policies politically acceptable to the mainstream population at a given time – ed.) as acceptable, and then as the only possible. This is the reason why we resist discussing possible territorial concessions in exchange for peace with all our might: first, the discussion legitimizes the proposal itself, then it will be discussed in society, and then the loss of a part of the territory will become quite acceptable.

“However, the very fact that it was Putin who voiced this... Either this is a component of the "I'm tired, I'm leaving" scenario, in the sense of "come what may, I don't mind dismantling the Russian Federation later." Or... It's not Putin? I mean, not the same Putin”

But the mistake is too obvious and primitive for a politician who has been holding the elites of a huge state in his fist for more than 20 years and scheming on the international stage (doing it rather successfully before getting involved in the war with Ukraine). So this is not a mistake? Did someone need to unofficially voice the prospects for dismantling Russia as real and concrete? That is, as being closely considered by Russian elites and already analyzing the likely outcomes?

However, the very fact that it was Putin who voiced this... Either this is a component of the "I'm tired, I'm leaving" scenario – in the sense of "come what may – I don't mind dismantling the Russian Federation later". Or... It's not Putin? I mean, not the same Putin. Still, this "raskassirovat’" (to cash out) coming straight from the vocabulary of the early 20th century, unusual gestures, overly active atypical facial expressions, stage vocabulary – all of this is completely uncharacteristic of the Putin the world knows from other interviews. So, could this be a performer who is a mouthpiece for a certain part of the Russian elite?

It's all strange, very strange, atypical and absurd.

Source

About the author. Oleksiy Holobutskyi, political scientist.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.