Number of Russian troops doesn't change in Belarus - military expert Serhiy Zgurets

Tragedy in Brovary

Usually we were supposed to talk about the situation on the fronts, which is difficult enough, but now the tragedy in Brovary came to the fore. On Wednesday, January 18, a helicopter crashed near a kindergarten in Brovary. This disaster caused the death of 14 people, including 1 child, and the leadership of Ukraine's Ministry of Internal Affairs. The EU leadership expressed their condolences to the Ukrainian people after the fatal crash, and also offered assistance in the investigation of the disaster.

Oleksandr Los, doctor of technical sciences, captain of Ukraine's Armed Forces, aircraft designer noted that the investigation has only just begun. Most likely, a state, even an international commission of EU representatives has already been created. Since this helicopter belongs to the state aviation, this investigation will be handled not only by the State Aviation Service, but also by authorized bodies of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense and other departments. The European Safety and Aviation Agency and the Airbus developer will join this commission. The investigation will be conducted at the highest professional level.

Oleksandr Los added that the registrars will be found. I am sure that they have already been found, since it all happened locally, in the middle of the town. The investigation may be complicated by the fact that the helicopter was flying to Kharkiv and had full fuel tanks on board, which is why the heat damage is very significant. There are also means of objective control, air traffic control, recorders that were on board, they are fireproof. The site of the disaster remains under the control of Ukraine's Armed Forces and other Ukrainian special bodies. The investigation is in the legal field, and it is a legal procedure.

This helicopter is dual purpose, both civil and state aviation, it can also be used by the Armed Forces. The legal side, the interaction of state authorities and different states comes to the fore. The investigation of the tragedy is complicated from a legal point of view.

According to the captain of Ukraine's Armed Forces, everything we see in the press reflects exactly the legal side of this process. The versions lay out all the possible formulations of what could have happened. Sabotage can be considered any type of sabotage, ranging from the intentional disabling of, or action on an aircraft while in motion. Also, all other versions open opportunities for investigators to fill the database with evidence.

Oleksandr Los believes that during hostilities, the more aircraft are in the air at the same time, the greater the probability of damage. It is necessary to reject the accusations that all state officials of Ukraine's Ministry of Internal Affairs were on board at the same time.

Also, all operators of this type of aircraft have already received a message that a disaster has occurred. There are no standard timelines for disaster investigations. Until the cause is determined, the investigation of the crashes may continue until then. It can take years.

Training of the Russian military in Belarus

Currently, Russia is deploying its aviation in Belarus as part of exercises that began on January 16 with the involvement of all Belarusian airports, where Russian fighters, helicopters, and transport planes have been deployed. The Ukrainian Armed Forces' General Staff said that the threat of using missile weapons has increased amid these exercises. On the other hand, our General Staff and intelligence once again reported that there are no signs of the formation of a shock offensive group on the territory of Belarus and that such a threat does not exist now.

Russian troops who were trained in Belarus are now being transferred to the Luhansk region and the Russian Federation's regions bordering Ukraine. In turn, the transfer of new batches of Russian conscripts to Belarusian training grounds continues. There are claims in the information field that as part of the new offensive, Russia will definitely use the northern direction to attack either Kyiv or western Ukraine in order to stop the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine's Armed Forces.

These aviation exercises are now being conducted in addition to the ground ones, which have been taking place for quite a long time to check the combat readiness of the Belarusian army, which is actually being conducted by the Russian military. And at this time, Lukashenko is nervous because his closest circle seems to be preparing an assassination attempt. And the security system, which relies on the Belarusian KGB (State Security Committee of the Republic of Belarus - ed.), does not suit Lukashenko. He begins to form a new system to protect his own security, relying on private companies that he trusts more.

The history with Belarus is a long-term irritant that we cannot ignore. Our military intelligence regularly says that there are no signs of an offensive group on the territory of Belarus. But the Main Intelligence Directorate representative, Andrii Cherniak, said on January 17 that the probability of the Russian troops' invasion from the territory of Belarus in the coming weeks remains low. It is interesting that earlier such estimates of our intelligence spread over months, and now the time limit of our intelligence officers has been somewhat reduced, which is a certain alarm signal. Our intelligence understands that certain dynamics associated with the use of space in Belarus remain sufficiently dangerous and active. In addition, Russian troops arrive in Belarus and undergo training for several months, then redeploy to the territory of Russia in regions adjacent to Ukraine to participate in offensive actions against Ukraine.

The number of Russian troops in Belarus does not change. The Main Intelligence Directorate talks about 11,000 soldiers who are on Belarusian training grounds, in addition to 15,000 Belarusian soldiers who are part of the ground forces and Special Operations Forces. Under pressure from the Russian Federation, these forces may be involved in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. We understand that these indicators are much lower than those at the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.