Russians build up northern troops for possible attack on Kharkiv - ISW

American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

According to Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets, on May 5, the Russian military gathered about 50,000 troops as part of the Northern Military Group: more than 31,000 troops in the Belgorod region, more than 10,000 troops in the Kursk region, and more than 8,000 troops in the Bryansk region. 

He noted that the Russian grouping in the Kursk region includes an unidentified airborne troop battalion.

On May 5, the commander of the group of troops, Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, confirmed that the 3rd battalion of the Russian 104th Airborne Regiment is currently in the Kursk region.

According to ISW analysts, the units of the 104th Regiment, operating in Zaporizhzhia region in February and March 2024, have recently been redeployed from southern Ukraine to the northeastern border.

ISW has recently received unconfirmed reports that the Russian military is redeploying units of the 76th and 7th VDV divisions from Zaporizhzhia region to various new locations, including eastern Ukraine, but has not observed visual evidence of units of the 104th VDV regiment operating in Kursk region.

According to the report, the Northern group of troops will operate on the Belgorod-Kharkiv operational direction. 

Mashovets also noted that Russia continues to deploy newly formed military units of the 44th Army Corps to the Northern Group of Forces. 

As of May 3, the Russian military moved personnel and equipment of the 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th AC, LMD) and the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade to the Northern Group of Forces.

According to Mashovets, the units of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment were first redeployed to the Kursk railway station and then moved further to the Belgorod region to possibly head to concentration sites near the Kharkiv region. 

However, according to the ISW, Russia's Northern Military Group is unlikely to be able to conduct a successful offensive to capture Kharkiv, as the Russian military lacks the strength to do so.

• General Mykola Malomuzh, former head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (2005-2010), stated that at least 1 million troops would be required by the occupiers to sustain constant offensive operations, making a strategic offensive on Kharkiv and Sumy unlikely.