Espreso. Global

Russia intents to launch new offensive in eastern and southern Ukraine when ground freezes — ISW

15 January, 2024 Monday
11:45

On Friday, January 12, Russian literary critic and alternative historian Sergei Pereslegin said that Russia would launch a large-scale offensive in Ukraine sometime between January 12 and February 2 after the ground in the east and south freezes

client/title.list_title

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported the information.

In Pereslegin's opinion, the offensive is likely to begin after Ukrainian troops are "exhausted" from defending their positions in Avdiivka and the left bank of the Kherson region.

He said that they should be more concerned about Russia launching its offensive at the wrong time or making the same "mistakes" that Ukraine made during the counteroffensive in 2023 than about a renewed Ukrainian offensive in 2024. 

Pereslegin also expressed concern that Russia does not have enough manpower to conduct the large-scale offensive he expects. 

In addition, a Russian milblogger stated that the number of Russian troops at the front allows Russian forces to conduct local tactical maneuvers, but that their number is unlikely to be sufficient to support operationally significant "breakthroughs."

The blogger claimed that the freezing weather was affecting Russian and Ukrainian ground activity, artillery, and unmanned systems along the entire front, especially in the Kherson direction. 

The ISW noted that the frost was preventing Russian troops from conducting ground operations and advancing north of Verbove in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region.

Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reported that Russian aviation could not operate in southern Ukraine due to freezing weather conditions. 

The former head of Roscosmos (Russia’s state corporation for space activities) and ultranationalist Dmitry Rogozin said that the front line in western Zaporizhzhia region is "buzzing like a beehive" due to the large number of Ukrainian drones, which are nonetheless operating. 

Rogozin claimed that Ukrainian forces are using half a dozen drones to hit every important target in the western Zaporizhzhia region, making it difficult for Russian troops to rotate. 

According to ISW's preliminary assessment, sub-zero temperatures in Ukraine are likely to hold back operations on the frontline for now, but will likely create more favorable terrain for mechanized maneuver warfare as the ground freezes over the coming weeks. 

The ISW assessed that Russian forces will likely try to maintain or intensify localized offensives in eastern Ukraine to seize and retain the initiative, despite the winter weather and terrain conditions. ISW also estimates that Russian troops will not be able to make operationally significant breakthroughs.

  • On Sunday, January 14, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced new aid packages for Ukraine: drones, air defense systems, electronic warfare equipment, and artillery.

Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2024, Friday
22 November
21:40
Ukraine in talks with partners for new air defense systems - Zelenskyy
21:30
Exclusive
Nothing stops Russia from launching nuclear attack - Defense Express
21:20
118 combat clashes reported at front today, with Russian forces most active in Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vremivka sectors
21:10
Russian army aims to capture Donetsk, Luhansk regions this winter - Ukraine's intelligence
20:55
Russian troops execute five Ukrainian prisoners of war in Donetsk region
20:40
Exclusive
Russian forces likely control part of Ukraine's Kurakhove - military observer
20:23
Exclusive
Russia has already launched missiles at Ukraine with same warhead weight as recently
20:08
Russia’s Kedr ballistic missile: new threat or just another Oreshnik?
19:52
Exclusive
Taiwan provides $10 million in aid to Association of Ukrainian Cities
19:37
Ukraine's Lviv receives key of European Youth Capital 2025
19:21
What is difference between intercontinental ballistic missile and intermediate-range missile?
19:05
At least 14 Shahed drones fly into Belarus during Russian attack on November 22
18:50
Trump’s victory is opportunity to speed peace process - Ukraine's top diplomat
18:34
Moscow tries to intimidate West with nuclear war to change support for Ukraine - expert
18:16
Drones attack rocket test range used to launch ballistic missile at Ukraine
17:55
Almost 580,000 Russian servicemen take part in hostilities against Ukraine — Ukraine's intel
17:35
Two injured as Russian attack hits public transport in Ukraine's Kherson region
17:13
Sweden to fund production of Ukrainian long-range drones
16:57
Russia's ballistic missile strike on Ukraine aimed at information warfare, not military
16:30
Ukraine intel reveals new details of Russian ballistic missile used to strike Dnipro
16:15
Ukraine’s precision strikes with ATACMS and Storm Shadow expose Russia’s bluff
15:56
Ukrainian producers lead in applications for international Drone Coalition tenders
15:37
OPINION
Game of chicken
15:14
Exclusive
Ukraine needs SAMs like those at U.S. base in Poland to down Russian ICBMs — Ukrainian general
14:52
Exclusive
Russia tests its remaining stock of RS-26 ICBM in strike on Dnipro — military expert Zgurets
14:42
Russian forces attack Kramatorsk suburbs, Donetsk region, killing and injuring civilians
14:33
Ukraine convenes emergency meeting with NATO over Russia's new ballistic missile attack
14:15
Russia damages 4 Ukrainian power substations critical to nuclear safety — IAEA
13:57
Russia’s Shahed drone attack on Ukraine's Sumy kills 2, injures 12
13:34
Ukraine authorizes Argo Aurora all-terrain amphibious vehicle for military use
13:16
Germany begins preparing for potential war with Russia — media
12:58
High-ranking North Korean general wounded in Ukraine's strike on Russia
12:43
Exclusive
Russian leadership pushes troops into hectic assaults in Kupyansk sector
12:23
Western sanctions nearly halt Russia's major LNG plant operations
11:56
Review
Russia likely warned U.S. about intercontinental missile launch to avoid NATO response. Serhiy Zgurets’ column
11:36
Russia provides over 1 million barrels of oil to North Korea in exchange for military support
11:15
Czech Foreign Minister Lipavsky arrives in Kyiv
10:56
Ukraine’s parliament cancels Friday sitting over attack threat — MPs
10:43
Russia seizes Dalnie village in Kurakhove direction — DeepState
10:28
Russia loses air defense system, 1,050 soldiers and 5 artillery systems in one day of war in Ukraine
More news