Putin expands list of threats by modifying Russia's nuclear doctrine. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Russia's new nuclear doctrine

Let’s start with news from Russia's side. Russia's chief criminal, Vladimir Putin, has signed a new nuclear doctrine, which involves changes to a document titled "The Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence."  What's new in it? It contains an expanded list of conditions or threats under which Russia may use its nuclear arsenal. However, it does not specify whether this refers to tactical or strategic reserves.

However, it is now formally established that Russia may use nuclear weapons as a last resort in response to aggression against itself or Belarus, should such aggression threaten the sovereignty or territorial integrity of either state. Additionally, nuclear deterrence could be employed in cases such as the deployment of air defense systems near Russia’s borders, or in response to medium- and short-range missiles, high-precision non-nuclear weapons, and strike drones.

These missiles, drones, and high-precision non-nuclear weapons are new additions, as they were not mentioned in Russia's doctrine before. Clearly, this is a response to Ukraine's active measures against it, both actual and potential on Ukraine's part.

The Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has already stated that under the new doctrine, the use of Western non-nuclear missiles by Ukraine’s Armed Forces against Russia could trigger a nuclear response.

Thus, Putin's signing of the changes to the nuclear doctrine marks another phase of Russia's nuclear blackmail, coming immediately after U.S. President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with long-range weapons. Moscow is well aware that European countries take nuclear deterrence issues seriously. At times, these nuclear blackmail tactics by Russia have influenced Ukraine's partners and limited the supply of certain types of weaponry.

What happens next remains to be seen. However, this will not affect Ukraine's approaches or policies, as we know that Ukrainian drones are consistently reaching Russia and systematically destroying Russian military targets.

Ukrainian Armed Forces strike on Russian territory 

The Ukrainian Armed Forces hold a bridgehead in the Kursk region and may already be using ATACMS.

It has been reported that on November 19, the Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked the arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate in the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation. It is possible that ATACMS were used, or perhaps Ukrainian Neptune missiles in a new version, because the President of Ukraine did not detail what exactly was used to strike the Russian territory, but said that Ukraine has and will continue to have such capabilities.

Zelenskyy's Resilience plan

Yesterday, November 19, on the 1,000th day of the large-scale war, the Ukrainian President presented the Internal Resilience Plan to the Ukrainian Parliament. The document consists of ten points, two of which relate to the frontline and weapons. Speaking about the army, Zelenskyy said that there was a need to change approaches to weapons management, and when it came to arsenals and rearmament, certain quantitative priorities were announced.

The resilience plan will be further detailed in collaboration with Ukrainian society, businesses, and experts. We also have the opportunity to elaborate on specific aspects of this plan, as the President of Ukraine, among other things, mentioned expanding Ukraine's missile capabilities in relation to weaponry.

Valentyn Badrak, a military expert and director of the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies, believes that Ukraine's missile program has started advancing more quickly and actively within the defense industry. This acceleration is linked to the establishment of a proper vertical structure, which began in early July. At that time, a relevant deputy minister was appointed to the Ministry of Defense, and new approaches to setting priorities emerged. As we all know, and as President Zelenskyy emphasized, Ukraine's priorities are missiles, drones, and ammunition. However, the Ministry of Industry is trying to add other items to this list, such as ammunition production or assault rifles, which it views as a dispersion of resources.

The military expert emphasized that the Ministry of Industry should be fully subordinated to the Ministry of Defense, at least during wartime. The Ministry of Strategic Industries should be solely responsible for preparing production. This means that no military-technical cooperation can take place without the Ministry of Defense. Furthermore, the Ministry of Defense should lead military-technical cooperation and negotiations. The development of Ukraine’s missile capabilities and their further advancement, relying on technological solutions from Western partners, should proceed in parallel. The missile program is progressing rapidly, with the most significant evidence being the president’s statement regarding the availability of long-range Neptunes. This is a serial missile with an extended range, and several modifications of this missile are known to exist.

The director of the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies noted that the figures announced by President Zelenskyy regarding the annual domestic production of weapons are somewhat exaggerated. For example, when talking about 2.5 million ammunition units, this figure can be considered only when factoring in the shells provided by Ukraine's partners, as Ukraine does not have the capacity to independently produce such a large quantity of ammunition. For instance, in March and April this year, the maximum production rates were 40,000 shells per month, with lower figures in other months. Therefore, it is impossible to reach that number. However, sometimes exaggeration can be helpful. Regarding the production of 3,000 missiles, he clarified that, first, this figure includes cooperation with partners, and second, it refers to all types of missiles, as multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) also require such weapons.

Badrak emphasized that the first point of the Resilience Plan is unity. This is the most critical point because true unity can only be achieved when society sees a fair approach to mobilization. So far, such an approach does not exist. The issue is not about lowering the conscription age to 25, but about finding hidden reserves. He also suggested that at least 50% of government representatives should be mobilized, with their positions being filled by women, people with disabilities, and veterans. This would demonstrate a different approach to staffing.

The expert concluded that there is still a long way to go and many tasks to be completed. However, a lot has already started to be implemented, including recruitment by military unit commanders and the reassignment of personnel to other positions - these are positive steps. If progress continues in this direction, opportunities will expand, and the issue could shift from "cosmetic repairs" to real, deep changes that should lead to unity. Ukrainian society must move quickly toward unity, as this is our core, our ability to withstand and ultimately prevail.