Melitopol, Berdyansk, or something unexpected: Ukraine is gathering troops for new major offensive

Euronews writes about it.

"Ukraine is marshalling and holding back troops and ammunition for a new major attack on Russian positions. They've got to maintain the momentum that they’ve built up: First in September with the capture of the Kharkiv region, and then in November with the liberation of Kherson," Atlantic Council analyst Peter Dickinson said.

The new offensive will be “crucial to maintain the support of the international community and demonstrate that their huge financial and military effort for Ukraine is bringing results.”

Former US Army colonel Liam Collins told Euronews that Ukraine needs to launch an attack before the snow melts in spring, making dirt roads difficult to use.

"Everybody remembers the flooding in the first stages of Russia's invasion. It's very challenging to conduct an offensive and move troops around in those conditions".

Collins said that Ukraine also suffers less from fighting in cold temperatures, while Russian troops have difficulties with logistics, morale and leadership:

“Those systems have been stressed for the Russians from the onset and weather conditions will only make that harder. The only advantage the Russians have in this conflict is mass.”

While many are trying to guess where the "hammer might fall," Dickinson said logistics suggest the most obvious place to attack would be south, straight to the Sea of ​​Azov:

"Probably in the region of Berdyansk, perhaps towards Melitopol, to isolate from resupply the Russian forces that head towards Crimea."

He said such an attack would be a larger version of the Kherson region offensive, where Russian forces were effectively cut off, blocked and forced to retreat because they could not resupply.

However, Collins warned that the more the Russian army is forced to retreat, the harder it will be to fight it. By conquering large areas, Ukraine pushes Russian forces to smaller and smaller territories, so their army can increase and not be so distributed.

At the same time, “Russian troops can’t conduct large scale fire manoeuvre, they don’t have the capability", he added. "It's just massing their artillery, with little tactical and strategic value, and at a great cost."

Peter Dickinson notes that Kyiv may again try to catch Russians off guard by sending out false information:

"Ukraine has proved very skilled at pulling surprises. The Kharviv offensive in September was preceded by months of signalling that they were going to put up a major offensive in the south. Russia pulled large number of troops to the south, and of course Ukraine attacked in the east. You would assume they would like to repeat that success in terms of catching Russia out."