Loss of Il-22M aircraft will undermine Russian commanders' ability to coordinate military during intensive operations, says British Intelligence

British intelligence reports that on June 24, 2023, Wagner mercenaries shot down Russian military helicopters and the Il-22M aircraft.

"The Il-22M is part of a relatively small fleet of up to 12 aircraft, heavily utilised for both airborne command and control, and radio relay tasks. These special mission aircraft have played a key role in orchestrating Russian forces in their war against Ukraine. As high value assets they have operated within the safety of Russian airspace, far beyond the range of Ukrainian air defence systems," the report states.

According to British intelligence, the loss of this aircraft will have a negative impact on future Russian actions in the air and on land.

"In the short term the psychological shock of losing a large number of aircrew in this manner will almost certainly damage morale within the Russian Aerospace Force. In the longer term, there is a possibility that current tasking levels may have to be reduced to safely manage the remaining fleet. This will likely undermine Russia's ability to command and coordinate its forces, particularly during periods of high tempo operations," the intelligence report adds.

Prigozhin's mutiny in Russia

For several months, there has been a conflict between Yevgeny Prigozhin, the financier of Wagner PMC, and the Russian Ministry of Defense. However, the situation escalated quickly on the evening of June 23.

Allegedly, Russian troops launched a missile attack on the Wagner base. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner PMC, announced a "march of justice" and stated that 25,000 mercenaries were heading to Moscow after the Russian leadership refused to hand over Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

On June 24, Wagner’s fighters took control of Rostov-on-Don, where they initially gathered around the headquarters of the Southern Military District, and then entered the city of Voronezh. Their convoys, which had diverted from the Ukrainian border, were moving towards Moscow. Military aircraft and artillery under Shoigu's control attempted to stop them. The units of Wagner PMC were last spotted in the Lipetsk region. In Moscow itself, defensive positions were established, trenches were dug, and all security forces were mobilized.

However, on the evening of June 24, the press service of the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, released a statement in which the head of the Wagner PMC stated that he was ready to stop the advance of his mercenaries' military convoys, which were already approaching Moscow, and to reach an agreement with the Kremlin. Prigozhin allegedly agreed on this during a conversation with Lukashenko.

Subsequently, Prigozhin and all his fighters left the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District. Russian leader Vladimir Putin promised that Prigozhin would be able to go to Belarus, and Russia would close the criminal case against him.

Read more on the events here.

On June 26, Russian media reported that the leader of PMC Wagner remained under investigation in the case of organizing a coup in Russia, despite the Kremlin's statements about closing the case.

On the same day, Putin gave a speech in which he offered the Wagner PMC fighters three options for future actions: join the Russian Defense Forces, go to Belarus with other PMC members, or return to their families.

Meanwhile, Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said that the main goal of the mutiny was "to prevent the destruction of the Wagner PMC, not to overthrow the government" and called it a "march of justice." He also claimed that the offensive on Moscow had stopped because the mercenaries "did not want to shed much blood."

On June 27, it is likely that Prigozhin's plane landed at one of the Belarusian military airfields in Machulishchy.