Kremlin gives propagandists guidelines on covering upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

"The Kremlin reportedly distributed a new manual instructing Russian state media on how to cover an upcoming potential Ukrainian counteroffensive," the statement reads.

Analysts believe that if such instructions are real, it indicates that the Russian leadership is creating information conditions for both effective defense of the Russian Federation and mitigation of shocks in the Russian information space from Ukraine's success.

For example, on May 2, the Russian opposition media outlet Meduza reported receiving such instructions. It instructed state media to "not lower the expectations of the announced Ukrainian counteroffensive" or to claim that Ukraine is not ready for a counteroffensive, instead treating the possibility of an offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces as a given.

It also emphasizes that the Russian press should focus on Western security assistance and support for Ukraine.

Meduza reported that sources close to the Russian presidential administration stated that the coverage aims to allow the Kremlin to announce a military victory in the event of an unsuccessful Ukrainian counteroffensive and establish justifications for a successful counteroffensive by claiming that Russian losses will be understandable because “the entire West has concentrated huge efforts on the front.”

"The alleged document suggests the Kremlin is preparing for – if not expecting – Ukrainian successes and is planning to mitigate demoralization in the Russian information space. This is an important Russian adaptation from previous Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kherson and Kharkiv, which produced dramatic shocks and demoralization in both the Russian military and the Russian information space that the Kremlin likely seeks to mitigate," experts believe.

In addition, Russian reactions to a claimed strike against a vehicle carrying Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces Commander Major General Ihor Tantsyura suggest Russian ultranationalists seek to frame any Russian operations as delaying potential Ukrainian counteroffensive actions, the Institute believes.

Thus, the financier of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said on May 2 that Wagner's men had struck a Ukrainian armored vehicle with Tantsyura on its way to Bakhmut. The PMC founder published a video allegedly showing the attack. Instead, the spokesman for the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces, Denys Zelinsky, denied Prigozhin's statement and said that "everyone is alive and well."

ISW notes that Russian military commanders widely circulated Prigozhin’s claims and framed the strike as an informational victory. A prominent milblogger claimed that Tantsyura received an order to transfer reserves to Bakhmut and prepare Ukrainian forces to conduct counterattacks in the area.

This presentation of the information highlighted the Russian strike as an operationally important event that delayed potential future Ukrainian counteroffensives, analysts said.

The report recalls how earlier Russian pro-war bloggers claimed that the May 1 strike on Pavlohrad had impacted a critical Ukrainian logistics and accumulation hub and similarly suggested that the strike would delay Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.

• Earlier, the Institute suggested that the Russian Defense Ministry was actively reporting missile strikes on Ukrainian territory to reduce the level of concern about the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive.