ISW analysts name main purpose of Russian reports on recent missile strikes on Ukraine

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War write about it.

The Institute cited informational messages from the Ukrainian and Russian sides about another large-scale missile attack on Ukraine, which the Russian Federation carried out on the night of April 30 to May 1.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that nine Tu-95 and two Tu-160 strategic bombers took off from the Murmansk region and near the Caspian Sea and fired 18 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles over Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 missiles.

The Russian Ministry of Defense said on May 1 that the strikes targeted Ukrainian military-industrial facilities and successfully disrupted the production of military resources. And the Russian military claimed that the missiles hit Ukrainian air defense systems and the transport hub in Pavlohrad.

Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat noted that the fact that the Tu-95 and Tu-160 carried far fewer missiles than their maximum payload indicates that Russia continues to struggle with adequate production of such munitions.

At the same time, analysts noted that geolocation footage from Pavlohrad shows that one of the missiles hit the town's chemical plant and caused a powerful explosion on impact.

"The Russian MoD has recently shifted its rhetoric and is actively describing strike campaigns, likely in an effort to portray a proactive approach to growing concerns in the Russian information space regarding a Ukrainian counteroffensive," the report said.

• American analysts also emphasized the fact that there is an ongoing struggle for positions in the Ministry of Defense among the military leadership of the Russian Federation.