Espreso. Global

ISW writes about reasons behind Putin’s visit to occupied territories 

19 April, 2023 Wednesday
10:27

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin paid a visit to the temporarily occupied regions of Ukraine to identify the scapegoats before the AFU counteroffensive 

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This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War.

It is noted that during his visit to the temporarily occupied Kherson and Luhansk regions, Putin continued to portray himself as a military leader in anticipation of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.

In turn, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the front line in Avdiivka on April 18, and it is possible that the Kremlin deliberately released footage of Putin's visit to obscure Zelenskyy's visit in the media, analysts say.

"Putin’s visit likely also intended to publicly identify potential scapegoats ahead of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive," the Institute emphasizes.

Putin received briefings from Commander of Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, Commander of the Dnepr Group of Forces Colonel General Oleg Makarevich, and other unnamed military commanders regarding the situation along the Kherson and Zaporizhia frontlines.

Putin also met with Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin and other unnamed senior officers to discuss the situation in the Luhansk area. It is likely that Putin deliberately singled out Teplinsky and Makarevich as commanders in charge of southern Ukraine, and Lapin as the commander in charge of the Luhansk direction, so that in case of failure, they would be blamed for the successful AFU counteroffensive.

Experts also noted that Putin, Kremlin, and military bloggers are increasingly discussing the prospects of a Ukrainian counteroffensive, and it is quite likely that the Kremlin is preparing the domestic information space either for military failures or for repelling the threat of a counteroffensive.

"Putin’s demonstrative meetings with Teplinsky, Makarevich, and Lapin likely confirm another change in military command and possibly within the Kremlin’s inner circle," the report says.

It is also suggested that Putin may be trying to balance Wagner's influence by re-appointing Lapin as the commander of the Luhansk section of the front.

In addition to the fact that select members of the “Club of Angry Patriots” are advocating for a revolution in Russia if the Kremlin freezes the war or pursues peace negotiations with Ukraine and the West. 

 Other key ISW findings for April 18:

  • Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu met to discuss strategic partnership and military cooperation in Moscow on April 18.

  • The Russian State Duma approved a series of amendments to the Russian Criminal Code on April 18 aimed at encouraging domestic self-censorship and repressing the Russian public. 

  • Russian authorities detained Russian public relations specialist Yaroslav Shirshikov, an associate of detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, in Yekaterinburg on April 18. 

  • The Russian Immortal Regiment Central Headquarters announced the cancellation of the annual Immortal Regiment Victory Day march, likely in an effort to reduce public discussion of war dead. 

  • Russian troops conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line

  • They also continued to hold positions in Bakhmut and conducted ground fire along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line

  • Ukrainian officials reported that Russian troops continue defense training in southern Ukraine

  • The Kremlin continues efforts to integrate puppet formations with regular Russian troops

  • Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian civilians to Russia under the guise of providing medical care and rehabilitation

  • Belarus may begin economically supporting Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast with a patronage system 

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