ISW: Ukraine turns the course of this war, but the current counteroffensive will not end it for now

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

Analysts stress that the loss of Izyum spells failure of the original Russian plan at this stage of the war and ensures that the Russian advance towards Bakhmut or around Donetsk will not be decisive, if it occurs at all.

Ukrainian pressure on Kherson, combined with a quick counteroffensive in Kharkiv, presents the Russians with a terrible dilemma of time and space. Russia probably lacks sufficient reserve forces to complete the formation of a new defensive line along the Oskil river.

ISW experts believe that the current Ukrainian counteroffensive will not end the war.

"The campaign in northeastern Ukraine will eventually reach a climax that will allow the Russians to reestablish a strong defensive line and perhaps even conduct localized counterattacks. To complete the liberation of Russian-occupied territory, Ukraine will have to launch further counteroffensive operations, probably several," the message says.

They also predict that the war will probably drag on until 2023. But Ukraine turned the course of this war in its favor.

"Kyiv is likely to increasingly dictate the location and nature of major hostilities, and Russia will increasingly respond inadequately to mounting physical and psychological pressure during successive military campaigns unless Moscow finds a way to regain the initiative," the analysts added.

ISW Key Findings for 11.09.2022:

• Ukrainian troops inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost the entire Kharkiv region in a quick counteroffensive.

• On September 11, the Ukrainian authorities shut down the last operating reactor at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

• The Ministry of Defense of Russia confirmed that Russian troops are withdrawing from their positions throughout the territory of the Kharkiv region, except for the eastern part.

• Russian bloggers identified the Oskil River, which flows from Kupyansk to Izyum, as the new front line after the withdrawal of the Russians from positions in the eastern Kharkiv region.

• Ukrainian forces advanced to Vovchansk and Veliky Burluk, south of Ukrainian the border.

• Ukrainian forces continue to conduct positional battles and strike Russian military, logistical and transport vehicles along the southern line.

• Russian troops launched ground strikes in the area of ​​Avdiyivka and Bakhmut

• Russian authorities continue to draw combat forces from various external sources to support operations in Ukraine and attempt to compensate volunteers.

• The success of recent Ukrainian counteroffensives probably contributed to Russia's announcement of an indefinite postponement of annexation "referendums".