ISW says Russian troops are vulnerable on Dnipro River’s left bank

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shared the analysis in its latest report.

ISW experts say that several major ground lines of communication run through eastern Kherson region into other Russian-controlled areas in southern Ukraine: the southern T2202 Nova Kahkovka-Armiansk route, the southeastern P47 Kakovkha-Henichesk route, and the M14 highway that runs eastward into Melitopol, Berdyansk, and Mariupol. 

Russian forces are reportedly building defensive positions along some of these crucial lines, according to geolocated satellite imagery. And social media reports suggest that Ukrainian forces have already started targeting Russian military assets and concentration areas along these routes.

The lack of high-quality roads and railways in this region, especially those connecting Crimea to the mainland, creates potential bottlenecks that could be exposed to Ukrainian interdiction efforts, which would progressively weaken Russia's ability to supply its grouping in eastern Kherson region and other regions of southern Ukraine, the experts say.

“Ukrainian forces will likely find it harder to achieve such dramatic effects in eastern Kherson but may be able to disrupt Russian efforts to solidify and hold their new defensive lines,” the report estimates.