ISW explains why Kremlin needs nuclear threats again

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"The Kremlin continues to attempt to employ nuclear threats to deter Western military aid provisions to Ukraine ahead of Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive," the Institute's report says.

On April 4, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu justified the decision to place tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, accusing NATO of intensifying combat training and reconnaissance near the borders.

Shoigu strengthened the existing Russian nuclear threats, stating that Belarus possesses nuclear attack aircraft and Iskander-M nuclear missiles and added that on April 3, the Belarusian missile forces began training to work with the Iskander-M complexes, in particular, with the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

Analysts believe that Shoigu's speeches do not contain new information about Belarusian exercises and are part of an information operation.

"Shoigu’s reinvigorated nuclear blackmail rhetoric coincides with Finland joining NATO and a new US aid package to Ukraine," the Institute says.

ISW continues to assess that the risk of nuclear escalation remains extremely low and that Russia's deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is unlikely to affect the realities of hostilities in Ukraine.

Experts also assume that the nuclear weapons deployed by Russia in Belarus will almost certainly remain under the control of Russian personnel who are permanently stationed there.

ISW also believes that “the Kremlin will likely attempt to coerce Belarus into further Union State integration when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko meet in Moscow on April 5 and 6.” 

• On March 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that a storage facility for Russian tactical nuclear weapons would be completed in Belarus by July 1.

• On March 31, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, announced his readiness to accept strategic nuclear weapons from Russia, if necessary.

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Russia's intention to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus is an attempt to intimidate the West, but the Alliance will not succumb to nuclear blackmail.