Why is Putin blackmailing United Kingdom?

Recently, Russian dictator Putin said in a speech, as reported by the Russian news agency Interfax, that “Russia has never refused to negotiate with Ukraine, but on the basis of the agreements reached in Istanbul in 2022. Are we ready to negotiate with them? We have never refused to do so. But not on the basis of some ephemeral demands, but on the basis of the documents that were agreed and actually initialed in Istanbul.” According to him, almost all the parameters of a possible peace agreement with government representatives in Kyiv were reached, but then the UK intervened in the process and the Ukrainian authorities “took a different path.”

Moscow is ready to make claims against everyone, but certainly not against itself. Putin wants Ukraine's surrender, and the fact that the United States, the United Kingdom, and the collective West are preventing him from achieving this intention makes him impotently angry. He has now begun to threaten the United Kingdom and America with war if their missiles are used to strike airfields and other military installations deep inside the Russian Federation.

To prove to the West that Moscow is determined, six British diplomats were stripped of their accreditation in Russia based on FSB materials. These are employees of the British Embassy: Jessica Davenport, Grace Elvin, Andrew Callum, Catherine McDonnell, Thomas Hickson and Blake Pattel. If the Kremlin thinks that by doing this they can push the UK to stop helping Ukraine, they are very much mistaken.

Intimidating the UK with war is another empty threat from Putin, just like his nuclear threats. Putin does not want a war with NATO because he knows he would lose it quickly. He is trying to avoid a conflict with the North Atlantic Alliance, because it would undermine his prestige much more than if the British and Americans give Ukraine the go-ahead to launch missile strikes deep into Russian territory, where the aircraft and missiles that Moscow launches at Ukraine are based. 

The revocation of the accreditation for British diplomats should have prompted the idea that all Western countries that help Ukraine should withdraw their diplomats from Russia. What are they doing there anyway? What can you negotiate with a dictator who has gone mad with unlimited power?

Putin poses as a defender of Russian security. But he has failed to resolve the issue of the humiliating seizure of Russian land. And with the prospect that Ukraine will soon be able to use long-range missiles to target Russian airfields, the near future looks very difficult for this Kremlin maniac.

No matter how bad some people think of Putin, he is actually much worse. No matter what, he intends to keep the four partially occupied Ukrainian regions plus Crimea for Russia. He believes that his aggression must be rewarded. Moreover, there is no guarantee that he will not attack Ukraine again when Russia rearms and rebuilds its battered armed forces. After all, Putin has long since reneged on Russia's commitment to respect Ukraine's sovereignty.

The Kremlin has always been ready for “peace talks,” but the precondition for them remains the same: give us everything we demand, or there will be no deal at all. Putin does not want to agree to anything else. His plan is to give Donbas to Russia. The two southern regions of Ukraine, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, parts of which are occupied by Moscow, remain with the Russian Federation. Ukraine recognizes that Crimea now belongs to Russia. All the enormous damage that Russia has caused to Ukraine with the war is not compensated, so no reparations are due. It is unlikely that such an approach by the Kremlin can be the basis for any “negotiations” at all.

A real peace agreement must include large financial reparations to Ukraine to rebuild our cities, villages and all major infrastructure, as well as compensation to the families of those brave Ukrainian soldiers and civilians who lost their lives during the Russian-Ukrainian war.

In fact, Russia could have peace the day after it leaves the territory of Ukraine. However, Moscow's TV propagandists continue to spread the false narrative that the vile, unjust world has united against Putin and is imposing the brutal NATO world order on Moscow under American dictates. One suspects that the Russians have not yet come to an agreement on how to explain to the world that more than two and a half years after their month-long campaign to take Kyiv, they are experiencing a rebuttal from Ukraine.

The only way this can end is that either Russian troops will withdraw and cede all the occupied Ukrainian territories, or Putin will fall unhappily down the stairs on his way to the Kremlin's Grand Chamber, and someone else who is willing to think better of Russia's interests will take his place.

In the meantime, Putin's idea of “peace talks” with Ukraine is that Ukrainians will capitulate and give up any claim to independence. It's like the proverbial saying: “if you shake hands with a Russian, count your fingers.”

The tyrant has made Russia's war in Ukraine his life's work. He is fully committed to this war because he understands that his survival as the leader of the Russian Federation depends on it. However, he is not the only one who has a say in the matter. And the higher the number of victims of this butcher, the more he risks that opposition to his power will form among Russia's top elites and military generals.

In the meantime, Putin's position on Ukraine remains maximalist. But Ukraine cannot trade its land for ephemeral security. And if we delve into Putin's true ideology, it becomes quite clear that the only thing he is willing to accept is the collapse of the entire concept of the Ukrainian nation.  Which sounds like this: Ukraine is part of the “Russian world.” And if he does not get everything, then in his understanding, he gets nothing.

Therefore, any negotiations at this stage of the war are impossible. Russia will neither make any reasonable demands nor accept them from anyone until it becomes common knowledge in the Kremlin that under no circumstances will they be able to achieve their hyperbolic desires.

They will realize this as soon as they see that the West will not stop helping Ukraine with weapons. And the losses of the Russian Federation in its attempt to win the war on its own terms will exceed the permissible threshold of strength. Because the resources of the Russian male population are far from endless. Therefore, the destabilization of the Russian Federation is already quite close.

In addition, the image of the despot, in which so much propaganda effort was invested, is changing. Previously, Russians considered Putin almost a strategic genius. Now, many of them have begun to realize what a short-sighted person he really is. But he is a dangerous and immoral person who cares not about the population of Russia, but about his own ego, self-esteem, and unbridled enrichment.

In an attempt to improve his future bargaining position, he is trying to keep on the offensive at a time when Russia's capacity for such massive offensives is beginning to run out. But Putin expects the Ukrainians to exhaust their defensive capabilities and lay down their arms, and the West will then agree to give the Russian Federation all of Ukraine.

In reality, however, these are just as much unfounded geopolitical illusions as the victory over Ukraine in a few weeks. An ignoramus may have enormous powers, but this does not make him an ignoramus. Posing as a powerful personality, he gradually begins to get entangled in the net of his own misguided hopes.

In fact, if the Kremlin continues to throw its military into the furnace of war at this rate, at least 1 million Russian soldiers could die on the frontlines of the irreconcilable confrontation by mid-2025. This will be very costly for the Kremlin. And there is no scenario in which everything will go well for Moscow if the West does not waver in its assistance to Ukraine. What can we expect from Putin? He was never going to negotiate on an equal footing, and this must be understood when trying to look into the future.

Russians have always been cruel and savage, so unless they are hurt, they will not give up their aggression against Ukraine, even despite the huge losses. The killing of civilians in Ukraine by the Russians, the destruction of homes, hospitals, schools, kindergartens, churches, and non-military facilities is a genocide of Ukrainians. And this issue needs to be raised with the international community now, not sometime later, in 30 or 50 years.

The geopolitical terrorist Putin must be stopped as soon as possible. Russia must pay the full price for all the crimes it has committed on the territory of Ukraine. By paying with all its frozen assets in foreign banks, confiscated estates and palaces of oligarchs in Europe and around the world, yachts, airplanes and all the real estate of the Moscow criminal camarilla close to the despot.

Putin is inadequate, but he knows that most dictators lose power because the regime's elites support a coup when the ruler looks weak. However, it has become increasingly difficult for him to demonstrate “strength” in front of his accomplices, which has recently begun to look more like weakness. But until the Russians decide that they want to get rid of this aggressive sociopath, peace will be a mirage on the distant horizon.

The impetus for Russia's war was Putin's imperial revanchist belief system, which cannot accept the fact that Ukraine, which had been colonized by Moscow for 337 years, has regained its statehood. Therefore, he is trying to establish the control of the Russian Federation over Ukrainians by all means at his disposal.

But Ukrainians are more determined than ever to defend their independence, democracy and freedom. And this is not something any foreign invader should bet against. There are always risks in warfare, but well-considered risks can bring unexpected results for those who dare to take them.

Source

About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.