ISW explains how Prigozhin's coup attempt affected Russian troops in Ukraine

This was reported by analysts of the Institute for the Study of War.

"Russian forces’ ability to conduct offensive and defensive operations in Ukraine does not appear to have been substantially impacted by Wagner’s June 23-24 armed rebellion. Russian and Ukrainian sources both reported that fighting continued as usual along the entire frontline, with Russian forces conducting a relatively higher number of ground attacks near Bakhmut than over the past few days," the report said.

Prigozhin and his fighters moved toward Moscow on June 24 with a large amount of equipment, but without enough force to occupy the city or sustain a prolonged battle. Prigozhin may have started negotiations with Lukashenko when he realized that his forces would not receive military support to fight the Kremlin.

"The specifics of the deal are still unclear in the open source beyond speculation and rumor. The fallout of Wagner’s armed rebellion has not yet concluded, and it remains to be seen how the deal will be implemented, whether all involved parties will comply fully, what the Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) intend to do with Wagner personnel, and if Wagner fighters will cooperate - regardless of Prigozhin’s wishes," ISW emphasizes.

Following the deal with Lukashenko, Wagner forces are reportedly returning to their bases in southern Russia with military equipment, and the future of their command and use is unclear. Some sources say that the Kremlin may change the leadership of the Defense Ministry because of the failure in Ukraine. The Russian government is currently blocking Prigozhin's press service on social media to limit his influence.

Wagner PMCs face criticism from Russian ultranationalists

On June 25, Russian ultranationalists were divided between those who want to punish Wagner rebels and those who demand that the security problems they have identified be corrected. Some milbloggers praised Prigozhin and his men for their service in Ukraine and called for a pardon. Others criticized the Russian leadership for failing to stop the uprising or publicly support Putin.

On June 25, the ultranationalist Angry Patriots Club in Moscow criticized Putin and the Russian military leadership for failures in the war with Ukraine and called for revolution if the Kremlin stops the war or negotiations. Former Russian officer Igor Girkin publicly demanded that Putin transfer some of his powers to other parties if he does not want to lead the war. 

"Russian officials were likely aware of it to some extent. The Kremlin likely risks Prigozhin’s armed rebellion expanding the window of acceptable anti-Kremlin criticism, particularly if the Kremlin does not intend to retaliate further against Prigozhin,” the report says.

Prigozhin's coup in Russia

The conflict between Wagner PMC financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense continued for several months, but the situation escalated sharply on the evening of June 23.

Then, according to Prigozhin, Russian troops allegedly launched a missile attack on the base of the private military company Wagner. The PMC leader announced a "march of justice" and that 25,000 mercenaries were on their way to Moscow after the Russian leadership failed to comply with the demand to give Sergei Shoigu, the Minister of Defense, and Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff, to Prigozhin.

On Saturday, June 24th, Wagner fighters seized control of Voronezh and the central part of Rostov-on-Don. They had been encamped near the headquarters of the Southern Military District since the evening of June 23rd. Their columns, diverted from the border with Ukraine, were moving toward Moscow. The Russian military, led by Shoigu, deployed aviation and artillery in an attempt to halt their progress. The most recent sighting of Wagner PMC units was reported in Russia's Lipetsk region. In the Russian capital itself, defensive positions were being established at entry points, trenches were being dug, and all security forces were being mobilized.

However, on the evening of June 24, the press service of the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, released a statement in which the head of the Wagner PMC stated that he was ready to stop the advance of his mercenaries' military convoys, which were already approaching Moscow, and to reach an agreement with the Kremlin. Prigozhin allegedly agreed on this during a conversation with Lukashenko.

Meanwhile, the PMC financier said that before reaching 200 kilometers to Moscow, Wagner stopped moving and returned to their field camps: "After a day of march, we have made it to a point just 200 kilometers short of Moscow. During this time we have not shed a single drop of blood. Now the moment has come when blood may be shed. Therefore, realizing all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed - on one of the sides, we are turning our columns around and going in the opposite direction to the field camps according to the plan." 

Subsequently, Prigozhin and all his fighters left the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District. Russian leader Vladimir Putin promised that Prigozhin would be able to go to Belarus, and Russia would close the criminal case against him.

According to CNN, US intelligence knew about the plans of the Wagner leader to go against the leadership of the Russian regular army, but did not think that the escalation would happen so quickly.

Analysts examining the data on visits to Google News by Russian internet service providers between June 23 and 24, during the coup, have arrived at the conclusion that a minimum of 5 telecommunications companies, including Rostelecom, U-LAN, and Telplus, blocked the Google News service, which collects news from various sources.

The deal reached through Lukashenko's mediation is likely to eliminate the Prigozhin-led Wagner PMC in its current form, although some elements of the organization may continue to exist under the Russian Defense Ministry, according to the Institute for the Study of War.