ISW analyzes consequences for Russia of Ukraine receiving long-range missiles

The Institute for the Study of War writes about this.

American analysts are drawing attention to claims by Russian sources and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation that Ukrainian forces struck the rear of the Russians in the temporarily occupied territory of Luhansk region with British Storm Shadow cruise missiles on May 12 and 13. This has caused concern among the Russians about Ukraine's potential to strike targets in the rear of the Russian Federation.

However, a Russian military blogger claims that the Storm Shadow cruise missile would have caused more damage, and the occupying authorities of Luhansk region said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck with Grim-2 missiles. ISW emphasizes that they have no visual confirmation that Ukrainian forces used Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

In general, the recent strikes with long-range weapons suggest that the Armed Forces are now capable of striking airfields, centers of deployment, and logistical support in areas that were previously considered completely safe.

This effect is similar to the summer of 2022, when the Ukrainian military began using HIMARS surface-to-air missiles to attack Russian positions in the Kherson region. The propaganda of the Russian Federation is working in a similar way, attempting to downplay the impact that long-range weapons can have on the course of events on the battlefield.

• On May 11, Great Britain confirmed the transfer of Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine.

• On May 12 and 13, explosions rang out in temporarily occupied Luhansk.