Is Russia capable of launching mega-attack on Ukraine? How many missiles it accumulated
On September 21, the invading Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 43 air-launched cruise missiles Kh-101/555. What should Ukrainians expect next?
This is reported by Obozrevatel.
Missile production in Russia
The Russians are producing Kh-101/555 missiles at a rate of two per day. At the same time, those that were unfit for service and required extensive repairs were restored. These are primarily Kh-55 missiles.
Thus, the Russian Federation can produce 40 to 60 Kh-101/555/55 missiles per month plus or minus 20%.
Production of sea-based Kalibr cruise missiles can be estimated at an average of 1-1.5 missiles per day. That is 30-40 Kalibrs per month.
The position for the invading Russian forces is significantly worse in terms of other missiles. The P-800 Onyx, Iskander-M/K, and Kh-47M2 Kinzhal are all fragmentary, small-scale items produced in dozens rather than hundreds of pieces each week.
"Another thing is the Kh-22. These are Soviet missiles, which were not produced in Russia for a very long time, but modernized to the level of Kh-32. And the lack of material for restoration, repair and modernization, given the very voluminous backlog from Soviet times, the occupiers have no shortage of material for restoration, repair and modernization," Obozrevatel writes.
All that limits the Russians on this issue is not so much the missile component, but the carrier component.
How many missiles can be stored in preparation for an attack on Ukraine?
Beginning in July 2023, we could observe Russia's very limited use of Kh-101/555/55 missiles. While they constituted the main strike element in May and June, their use was reduced to a production capability level of 56 in July and 76 in August.
And in September, in less than a month, the occupiers far surpassed the production base by carrying out such strikes:
7/7 - Kh-101/555
10/6 - Kh-101/555
17/17 - Kh-101/555
43/36 - Kh-101/555
Thus, Russia used not only the resources of missiles that are produced, but also those that were accumulated through repair and refurbishment.
The issue is slightly different in the case of the sea-based Kalibr cruise missiles. These missiles have been the main strike component of the Russian occupying troops' flotilla in Ukraine since July. In July, 49 Kalibrs were utilized, while 44 were used in August. Throughout the first half of September, however, not a single Kalibr was utilized. Taking this into consideration, we can estimate that the Black Sea flotilla's stockpile may total 50 to 60 units.
"And then the question will arise: how can it be if only 21 days of September have passed, which means that the accumulation can be 20-30 missiles? At first glance it seems so, but the accumulation is counted not from today, but from the previous month. And this is due to the fact that missiles must be delivered to the points of loading on carriers. Logistics," the publication writes.
Therefore, the Russian forces may now have between 50 and 60 Kalibrs at their disposal in the Black Sea.
The most rare representatives of the strike component are the P-800 Onyx, Iskander-M/K missiles, and the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal. All of them were most actively used in July, primarily against Odessa's port infrastructure.
For example, 25 P-800 Onyx missiles, at least 13 Iskander-M/K missiles, etc. were used in July. But in August and September their use sharply decreased, which allows us to speak of accumulation.
"Similarly with the Kh-22. In July, they used at least 15, but in August - 4 missiles. This allowed to date to accumulate, or rather, restore and modernize at least 20, but not more than 30 missiles Kh-22/32."
Russian can produce 120-130 missiles at most
Taking everything into consideration, Russia has a supply of 100 to 120 missiles of the whole nomenclature ready within a month. Furthermore, the Kh-22/32 recovery/modernization capability can average up to ten missiles.
And these are the kind of figures we should expect when talking about the enemy's capabilities not only to launch missile strikes in the near future, but also to stockpile ammunition.
"At the same time, it should be understood that the occupying Russian forces will not be able to use all of this ammunition at once (one time), both because of the limited number and because of the degrading capabilities of the carriers of each type of missile weapon," the article says.