Iran's entry into anti-Ukrainian coalition may end in disaster for it

The Iranian Kayhan newspaper, a mouthpiece of the most radical forces of the Islamic regime, published an article with the telling title "Emergence of a New World Order Based on the Eastern States." Its author, Reza Almasi, begins it with the statement that the war in Ukraine should be looked at from a deeper perspective. And then he quotes Ayatollah Khamenei: “This war is not just a military attack on the country. The process observed today in Europe has deep roots, and there are guesses that it will be a difficult and difficult future. If we assume, and our assumption is correct, then the world stands on the threshold of a new order. Then all countries, including our Islamic country Iran, are obliged to be present in this new order, ensuring the security of the state and protecting the interests of the country and the nation, without remaining aloof or lagging behind.”

That is, Ayatollah Khamenei sees the Russian Federation's attack on Ukraine as a great opportunity for Iran, which it must take advantage of. In Tehran, they do not hide the fact that they already see themselves as one of the leaders of this 'new world order', of course, together with Russia and China. A kind of 'geopolitical triad', which is already preparing to single-handedly decide the fate of the world.

“Ayatollah Khamenei sees the Russian Federation's attack on Ukraine as a great opportunity for Iran, which it must take advantage of. In Tehran, they do not hide the fact that they already see themselves as one of the leaders of this 'new world order', of course, together with Russia and China.”

The author of the article, Reza Almasi, is convinced that “In the West Asian region, countries such as the Republic of Iran, due to their independence of actions and greater dependence on internal potential than other regional players, will have more chances in the transition period and during the formation of a new order. And countries like Saudi Arabia, which rely heavily on the United States (especially for security guarantees) will now become less important and lose the ability to receive security services as the influence and power of the United States diminishes.”

These two quotes from the Kayhan newspaper show what is expected in Tehran after Iran joins the anti-Ukrainian coalition. After all, despite the fact that they know perfectly well that Russia is an unreliable ally, which is ready to surrender the interests of its political client when Moscow loses interest in it or is unable to protect it, as has already happened with Armenia, the mullahs' regime put the Russian Federation, and this is his conscious choice.

“By supplying Russia with drones and intending to supply ballistic missiles, Iran is essentially declaring that it is participating in the war in Ukraine, and thereby agreeing with Putin's claims that the Ukrainian state has no right to exist.”

Currently, Russia's war with Ukraine and Moscow's efforts to establish its 'new world order' through it have highlighted hidden world trends that some countries preferred not to publicize until a certain time. One of these countries is Iran, which voluntarily sided with Moscow during the Russian-Ukrainian war and showed its true attitude towards Ukraine.

By supplying Russia with drones and intending to supply ballistic missiles, Iran is essentially declaring that it is participating in the war in Ukraine, and thereby agreeing with Putin's claims that the Ukrainian state has no right to exist. Actually, this is a direct continuation of this approach of Tehran, when it tries to determine on its own which country has the right to exist and which does not. If earlier this mainly concerned Israel, now Tehran has decided that it, in tandem with Moscow, is capable of terminating the existence of the Ukrainian state. And it is just waiting for the moment when the ancient Ukrainian lands will come under the Russian Federation's control. 

“In addition to new military technologies, the Kremlin is ready to transfer to its political partners the technologies for the production of nuclear weapons, and perhaps also certain of their components. Although it seems that this has not happened yet. In such a case, the Israeli strategic aircraft would have already bombed nuclear facilities on the territory of Iran.”

Another mass attack by Iranian drones in Odesa and Odesa region indicates that Iran has already delivered a large batch of its unmanned aerial vehicles to the Russian Federation. And now it is only a matter of time before Russia receives the ballistic missiles promised to it by the mullahs. In this way, determining that Iran is a country that is participating in the Russian-Ukrainian war with Putin's help, it is necessary to decide whether it is time to break off any diplomatic relations with those who are working for your destruction.

“In Iran, they finally decided to completely rely on Putin, without thinking in advance about what might happen in the event of a predicted loss of Russia in Ukraine. But what negatives, in the end, will this bring for those who entered into a military coalition with Moscow.”

It is obvious that, in addition to new military technologies, the Kremlin is ready to transfer to its political partners the technologies for the production of nuclear weapons, and perhaps some of their components. Although it seems that this has not happened yet. In such a case, the Israeli strategic aircraft would have already bombed nuclear facilities on the territory of Iran. However, it is only a matter of time before Putin decides to deliver to Tehran what he has long promised.

It seems that Iran has finally decided to completely rely on Putin, without thinking in advance about what might happen in the case of the predicted loss of Russia in Ukraine. But what negatives, in the end, will this bring for those who entered into a military coalition with Moscow.

To begin with, this 'friendship' will turn into the fact that after receiving verified information about the transfer of nuclear technologies to them, all known nuclear facilities, and probably part of the military, will be attacked and destroyed by Israel. That will significantly weaken Iran's military potential, not to mention the despair of some representatives of the special services and the military that the decision to support Moscow in its quest for world hegemony was correct.

In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that, most likely, Iran will not be allowed to transport ballistic missiles for the Russian Federation through the territories of other states. Then there is only one way left in Russia - through the Caspian Sea, and then the Volga River.

Here there is an excellent opportunity to prevent the Russian Federation from obtaining these ballistic missiles by destroying them during transportation by sea. After all, Putin will not transfer nuclear technology until Iran fulfills its missile order in full. It is necessary to cut off this illegal device at the very beginning, even before Iranian missiles can end up in the hands of the Russian terrorist state.

“Tehran's disregard for Ankara's geopolitical interests is certainly a big mistake on the part of the Iranians. Turkey, on the other hand, rightly believes that there cannot be two leaders in the Middle Eastern region. Especially if Iran also claims this role.”

As already mentioned, not only Russia is involved against Ukraine. A clear anti-Ukrainian axis was formed: Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China, which, although it does not publicly declare its affiliation with it, secretly helps the Russian Federation all the time. At the same time, trying to demonstrate its alleged 'neutrality' in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

But, fascinated by the prospect of rapprochement with Russia, Iran acts in the Middle East as if Turkey, its interests and Recep Erdogan's undisguised desire to become the leader of the entire Islamic world do not exist. Tehran's disregard for Ankara's geopolitical interests is certainly a big mistake on the part of the Iranians. Turkey, on the other hand, rightly believes that there cannot be two leaders in the Middle Eastern region. Especially if Iran also claims this role.

For some reason, the regime of the Iranian mullahs prefers not to mention that Turkey is already a member of NATO and an ally of the United States. And it is not very happy with Tehran's rapprochement with Moscow, especially if it could potentially affect its position in the region.

It is clear that not only Israel, but also Turkey is interested in weakening the role of Iran in the Middle East. However, entering into a military coalition with the Kremlin, Iran did not take into account its vulnerable Achilles' heel, which, with the right approach, will completely destroy any of its claims to the status of a regional Middle Eastern leader and attempts to directly participate in the great world geopolitics.

“For some reason, the regime of the Iranian mullahs prefers not to mention that Turkey is already a member of NATO and an ally of the United States. And it is not very happy with Tehran's rapprochement with Moscow, especially if it could potentially affect its position in the region.”

We are talking about South Azerbaijan, which is part of Iran, but its population retains its language, culture and national customs. In case of favorable circumstances, South Azerbaijan could unite with the Republic of Azerbaijan (North Azerbaijan).

Observing how rapprochement is rapidly taking place at all levels of Turkey and Azerbaijan, it is quite possible to make an assumption that, in the near future, the unification of these two countries, in one or another political dimension, is possible. And after Russia loses the war in Ukraine, Iran, which is now so enthusiastically helping the Russian Federation, will be considered a defeated party as well.

It is already clear that it is only a matter of time before Turkey and Azerbaijan form a confederation or union state. And Iran, which is finally weakened by internal protests, the defeat of the Russian Federation and weakened by the economic sanctions imposed on it, will not be able to keep the territory of South Azerbaijan under its control. Turkey with its powerful, professional and trained army, which Iran cannot compete with, can serve as a guarantor of the possibility of such a reunification.

“Iran's attempt to play a 'big game' on the side of 'great Russia' is predicted to end in a big defeat for it. When Ankara prefers not to prematurely speak publicly about such a development, it is only in order not to scare the mullahs prematurely.”

It can be predicted that by siding with Moscow in the Russian-Ukrainian war, Iran actually signed a sentence for itself. Because, in this case, it will not be able to preserve its territorial integrity. And although one should not rush to conclusions, Tehran is clearly on the wrong side. The 'Moscow-Tehran' tandem is a losing proposition for the Islamic Republic of Iran, and neither the Russian Federation nor the People's Republic of China will be able to help it in any way.

Iran's attempt to play a 'big game' on the side of 'great Russia' is predicted to end in a big defeat for it. When Ankara prefers not to prematurely speak publicly about such a development, it is only in order not to scare the mullahs prematurely.

In 2023, Turkish President Recep Erdogan is going to run for his next term. The situation for him is developing in such a way that he has nothing particularly to demonstrate as his achievements either in the economic or the political sphere. But participation in the liberation of South Azerbaijan would be a great political bonus for him, which would immediately overturn all his past miscalculations.

In geopolitics, the well-known rule also applies: “don't dig a hole for others, because you'll end up in it yourself.” In the case of Iran, its desire to help the Russian Federation destroy Ukrainian statehood will return to it with the loss of its territories. By the time the Iranian mullahs' regime realizes its fatal mistake, it will be too late for it to try to take anything back.

About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist. 

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.