How Ukraine uses Western aid matters for relations with US — military expert Zgurets

US assistance to Ukraine

Valerii Kondratiuk, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service’s Chief in 2020 to 2021, Head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence in 2015 to 2016, spoke about some details of US assistance and strategy towards Ukraine. He notes that today there is no such pressure from the Republicans on the Biden administration to reduce the amount of aid to Ukraine or cut it.

The types and amounts of aid are determined at the expert level directly by the Pentagon and the US State Department. Some Republicans are now making comments about the need for greater control over the use of aid to Ukraine. Amid such statements, the Biden administration decided to create such a mechanism and send teams of inspectors, including representatives of the Pentagon and the US State Department, to Ukraine.

Valerii Kondratiuk believes that the creation of such a commission and its actions should be treated quite seriously. It is not just a framework control, but the establishment of mechanisms for bringing to justice those found to have misused this aid or embezzled these funds. Of course, if the inspectors find such facts, it will have consequences for the provision of assistance. The US will find a way to bring such persons to justice in one way or another. Valerii Kondratiuk noted that it may not be public, but the punishment will be applied for sure.

At first, the administration focused, in particular, on warning of the risks of a Russian attack, attempts to stop it diplomatically, then uniting the world and international assistance to provide Ukraine with sufficient opportunities to defend itself. Today, it is time to create mechanisms to audit the effectiveness of such assistance, which could not be checked in the process of providing it, but now the amount of support is impressive. 

Recently, the administration approved the 31st aid package, which includes USD 425 million in Presidential Authorization and USD 1.75 billion in Security Assistance Initiative. And this includes not only IFVs and other equipment, but also Javelins and the necessary amount of artillery ammunition for HIMARS, including small diameter ground-launched bombs with a range of up to 150 km, which is extremely important for Ukraine today to prevent a repeat Russian offensive. Now in the East, Russia has regrouped and is redeploying its airborne forces reserves to prepare for another offensive, but the availability of foreign long-range ammunition does not allow them to accumulate reserves in one place, as they become vulnerable not only to HIMARS but also to artillery. Thus, Russia's ability to conduct an offensive will be significantly reduced.

Valerii Kondratiuk notes that it is the Russian leadership that is doing everything for their own defeat, including on the battlefield. The West is providing the necessary support to restore our combat capabilities, replenish our forces and create the capacity to effectively defend and return the occupied territories. And delays in the delivery of weapons indicate the time between the political decision and the actual order. It takes time to provide these weapons after experts recognize the need for them, remove them from the surplus property fund, or order them from defense companies. 

Unfortunately, we get what we can get quickly, and there is something that requires some time, including training of our crews. But today we cannot talk about any delays. What is necessary for Ukraine is immediately studied and discussed, and proposals are prepared, to which not only the Biden administration but also other countries of the world with its support immediately respond. Funds are being raised to supply Ukraine whenever possible.

Will Ukraine and Russia exhaust their resources by the summer and negotiate

Valerii Kondratiuk says that the next few months, during which Russia will try to resume its offensive, and Ukraine's ability to launch a counteroffensive will be crucial for further developments. Russia's losses and successes will affect its position on the negotiations. The CIA director is a career military diplomat who has worked in Russia and, according to the Russian side, has credibility as a professional. He has always favored back-channel diplomacy and was behind the preparation of the 2013 agreement with Iran by Jake Sullivan, where he held preliminary secret meetings with Iranian leadership, and the agreement was later finalized by the George W. Bush administration. According to Valerii Kondratiuk, today they are also studying all the possibilities and prospects for finding a window of opportunity when political negotiations will be possible. They estimate that this will happen, possibly, after the end of the fierce phase of hostilities, which will last for the next 4 or 6 months.

Russia's capabilities to conduct large-scale military operations

According to Valerii Kondratiuk, if we assess the capabilities of the Russian Federation, the military operation has been replaced by a full-fledged war. The General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces has been given power to manage it directly, with the involvement of all branches and services of the Russian Armed Forces, the military-industrial complex, and logistics. After the first losses during this year, Russia restored its combat capabilities through mobilization, regrouped by liberating the right bank of the Kherson region, abandoned the use of battalion tactical groups, and concluded that the use of units in regular structures was effective. All of this suggests that Russia has recovered and is ready to resume hostilities in the near future. According to Ukraine's estimates, Putin's main goal is the one announced at the beginning of the military operation: "defense" of Donbas, access to the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. We also see the deployment of air assault units in this direction. This is the direction that is most threatened by the Russian offensive. As for an offensive from Belarus, it is unlikely, because Belarus has not yet created enough strike groups. There are up to 9,000 Russian troops of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps in Belarus, which has entered the country for coordination and training. The second division entered Russia and partially relocated to the Luhansk region.  

The situation in the Bakhmut direction

Valerii Kondratiuk believes that the enemy does not take into account the losses in this area because Wagner PMC-s proxy groups were operating there. That is why they do not belong to the Russian Armed Forces and fit into the Kremlin's doctrine of reducing the number of losses. However, after Russia's failure in the Bakhmut direction, units of the Russian army are being redeployed there.