How long will the war last?

So here are some obvious thoughts about this.

No, there are no specific deadlines. The thesis that Ukraine has time "until the fall", "until the US elections", "until May 32" is an exaggeration of fears. Judging by the statements and actions of our partners, we have as much help with weapons and money as we are ready to wage war ourselves. We can and should want more, but everything depends on the situation. So far, the dynamics are good.

The pressure on Russia is not easing. The main sanctions against Russia came into force only at the end of 2022. In March, the Americans introduced additional tools to monitor the implementation of sanctions and began hiring people to do this work. The United States is ramping up production of weapons and ammunition. The EU is doing the same. Other allies of the United States and Ukraine are doing the same. We are getting tanks, MLRS, infantry fighting vehicles, and other equipment. We are getting airplanes. Not Western, but critically important for us.

As for "the Republicans will come and that's it". The US elections are 1.5 years away. People who are now making predictions about "How the US elections will end" or "How the US elections will affect the war in Ukraine" are selling fantasies. There is too much context that we don't know or understand yet to make any predictions about the impact of the US elections on our war.

“Predicting sudden movements during or after the American elections is pure magic. But it is quite possible to predict that the situation will develop conservatively. Because it usually develops conservatively due to the multifactorial nature of influences in American politics”

Predicting sudden movements during or after the American elections is pure magic. But it is quite possible to predict that the situation will develop conservatively. Because it usually develops conservatively due to the multifactorial nature of influences in American politics. In short, even if the war does not end before the US elections (although I have my doubts about this), something tragic is unlikely to happen to support for Ukraine.

In general, haste is a problem, not an advantage. The Russians were in a hurry at the beginning of the war. And this is what prevented them from taking advantage of their superiority in men and equipment. Our offensive actions will take place when and where the conditions are best. To minimize losses. To make effective use of equipment. To deal the most painful blow to Russia.

The counteroffensive that is being talked about now is not the "last 100 meters" of a marathon. In general, any war (unless the forces of the parties are 100 to 1 or there is an infinite technological gap) is cyclical. We advance - there is a lull - they advance - there is a lull - we advance again. Until someone breaks. Perhaps it will happen right now. Or in the fall, as a result of which the Russian regime and army will lose control. But I would not plan for the future expecting it to happen so quickly.

We will have to work very hard. To fight. Donate. To be patient. Because after walking 20-50-100 kilometers, we need to gain a foothold, not fall into a trap, and tighten up our logistics. To repel an attempted counterattack. And it all takes time and resources. Equipment that needs to be repaired and restored. And most importantly, people.

“Russia will not be able to wage war for "many years". Its economy, army and political system are degrading very quickly. "Very quickly" does not mean months. And their economy should not have collapsed in 3 months (those who promised this were either lying or do not understand economic processes at all)”

What about the eternal war? No. Russia will not be able to wage war for "many years". Its economy, army and political system are degrading very quickly. "Very quickly" does not mean months. And their economy should not have collapsed in 3 months (those who promised this were either lying or do not understand economic processes at all). "Very quickly" is when revenues are falling in a year, and there is almost nothing to plug the holes. And at this rate, it's not a matter of years, it's a matter of a year. Maybe a little less or a little more.  

If you want a forecast with numbers. Taking into account the "offense-defense" cycles, the dynamics of aid, the exhaustion of Russian resources and the accumulation of problems with the economy, my estimate of when Ukraine will be able to defeat the Russian Armed Forces as an organized structure is spring-summer 2024.

This does not mean that the war will end instantly. It means that the Ukrainian army will gain a decisive advantage and protect the country from systemic aggression. Here I cannot take into account every "black swan" that may be. But if you want, I wrote the date.

Source

About the author. Yuriy Bogdanov, publicist, specialist in strategic communications in business, public administration and politics

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of blogs.