Grain deal. Will Russians be able to continue blackmailing?

And it made this ultimatum specifically on the day of Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow (China is one of the most important players interested in extending the agreement). Thus, the Russians are trying to drag China into their grain game.

Let me remind you that two weeks ago Russia was forced to extend the grain deal under pressure from Turkey. Russia was not prepared for Turkish blackmail (Turkish customs simply stopped clearing goods).

It is highly likely that no one will accept Russia's terms. So there are few options for development:

• the situation will be suspended indefinitely and Russia will play the grain card in the negotiation process;

• Turkey will once again pull a trick with customs clearance and a positional war will begin, as a result of which Russia will extend the agreement for several more months;

• the Russian ultimatum will be partially satisfied (the key monetary demand is the unblocking of the Tolyatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline, which Rotenberg is lobbying for). It should be noted right away that with a functioning GTS, the opening of the ammonia pipeline is hardly something extraordinary, although many in Ukraine will start talking about 'blood trade' in such circumstances.

“Sooner or later, the Russian Federation had to pull out this card, and now, unfortunately, the scenario of 'hanging the situation for an indefinite period' is becoming the most likely.”

In general, sooner or later, Russia had to pull out this card, and now, unfortunately, the scenario of 'hanging the situation for an indefinite period' is becoming more likely. It is not without reason that Russia has artificially slowed down the export of its agricultural products, even to the detriment of its farmers.

And now the grain deal is once again becoming the main and, perhaps, the only bargaining chip for Russia.

It is almost impossible to imagine that the West will now respond by banning imports of seeds, which are critical for Russia. The fact is that the West is critically dependent on Russian fertilizers.

So far, there is no answer to the question of how this deal will be resolved. Russia has created another point of tension and will be waiting for negotiations to begin. But we shouldn't forget that Russia agreed to the first grain deal under less difficult conditions. There are still more than enough points of pressure on Russia.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.