First test for Umerov: what to expect from 15th Ramstein meeting

Espreso will delve into the story of Ramstein, its significance, and the old and new challenges Rustem Umerov is facing today.

What's in the text:

• What is a Ramstein meeting?
• Whether Reznikov's replacement will change the Ramstein dialog;
• What to expect from the 15th Ramstein meeting.

What is Ramstein meeting?

                                                                                                                    Photo: AP

The Ramstein meetings, also known as Ukraine Defense Contact Group meetings, are a series of diplomatic meetings of defense ministers from several dozen countries (under the auspices of the United States) that support Ukraine in the war started by Russia. The purpose of these meetings is to synchronize and accelerate the provision of weapons to Ukraine to counter a full-scale Russian invasion, as well as to train the Ukrainian military to NATO standards.

The meetings were named after the location of the first one on April 26, 2022, at Ramstein Air Force Base in Ramstein-Miesenbach, Germany. Subsequently, these meetings took place either offline or online in two locations (Ramstein Air Force Base or in Brussels at NATO Headquarters). All of them received unofficial names such as Ramstein-2, Ramstein-3 and so on.

Each of these meetings was important for strengthening both the defensive and counteroffensive capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. During the first meeting, 30 countries pledged more than USD 5 billion in military aid to Ukraine (e.g., Germany announced 50 Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns). After the second meeting, 20 countries announced new aid packages, some declaring their readiness to provide artillery, tanks, and other armored vehicles, while others offered training for the Ukrainian military. After the third Ramstein, the United States provided us with the famous HIMARS. The last meeting took place online on July 18. It was important because agreements were officially signed to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters.

In general, the Ramstein format was important for consolidating the capabilities of the allies in helping Ukraine and largely determined the success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the battlefield against the Russians.

Will Reznikov's replacement change the dialog of the Ramstein participants?

                                                                                                      Photo: gettyimages

Despite scandals related to various questionable procurement by the Defense Ministry, Oleksii Reznikov proved to be a professional diplomat in building a long-term dialogue with allies. Experts noted his important personal role in the negotiations, as he had authority in the eyes of the allies. Therefore, this may have been one of the reasons why President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did not immediately dismiss the head of the Defense Ministry. After all, the first high-profile procurement scandals (one egg for 17 UAH) occurred at the beginning of this year.

Nevertheless, during a full-scale war, the main players are not those in power, but the Ukrainian military, volunteers, and the people who are resisting the occupying Russian forces. The role of individuals is undoubtedly important, but, as the saying goes, there are no irreplaceable people, especially when it comes to the existential war for the right to exist in Ukraine.

Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Foreign Policy and Interparliamentary Cooperation, believes that the change of the head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry will not affect the dialogue between the Ramstein participants. Therefore, we should not expect any fundamental changes in terms of support for Ukraine.

"I think it will not have a radical impact. Although, indeed, the human factor is of great importance in the field of international politics. In this regard, I often recall the words of President Biden, who said that international relations are interpersonal relations. But in this context, in terms of providing arms, military and technical assistance to Ukraine, I think this will not have a decisive impact. ... We see that the format and mechanisms of the Ramstein have long been developed. There are certain traditions that have already been established," Mr. Merezhko told the FREEDOM TV channel.

He also noted that he considers Rustem Umerov an effective representative of parliamentary diplomacy and a successful manager.

What to expect from 15th Ramstein meeting

                                                                                Rustem Umerov. Photo: Reuters

The new Ramstein was announced in late August, when Reznikov was the minister. After Rustem Umerov was appointed the new Minister of Defense of Ukraine on September 6, on September 11, the head of the US Department of Defense, Lloyd Austin, had a phone call with Umerov to discuss new aid to our country and the agenda for the next Ramstein meeting.

On September 14, Deputy Pentagon Spokesperson Sabrina Singh officially confirmed that Ramstein 15 would take place on September 19.

"Austin and Milley will travel to Ramstein, Germany, on September 18 to hold an in-person meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. This will be the 15th meeting since Secretary Austin formed the international group in April 2022. The Secretary and Chairman will join defense ministers and senior military officials from nearly 50 countries to discuss the current situation in Ukraine and the continued close coordination of the international community to ensure that the Ukrainian people have the means necessary to defend their sovereign territory," said Sabrina Singh.

The issue of providing F-16, ATACMS and Taurus

There is currently no information on what issues will be discussed on September 19. However, there is no doubt that it will be about replenishing the stocks of Ukrainian artillery shells, which are always in short supply, as well as replenishing the stocks of air defense missiles that "land" Russian targets in the air every day, and, of course, training our military in NATO countries, in particular, how the training of Ukrainian pilots is progressing so that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can finally receive F-16s.

Discussions related to the provision of German Taurus missiles and American ATACMS missiles to Ukraine may be difficult. For months now, our diplomats have been trying to "break through" the arguments of our allies, who are in no hurry to provide us with these powerful long-range missiles. However, perhaps Rustem Umerov will be able to find the right arguments to convince the United States and Germany that Putin's so-called red lines are just a scaremongering scheme to delay the delivery of crucial weapons to Ukraine.

In a comment to ICTV, military expert Mykhailo Zhyrokhov expressed the opinion that such sensitive issues as ATACMS or Taurus are not likely to be discussed.

"At the Ramstein meeting, they discuss the needs that can be met primarily by European countries. For example, this is how the tank coalition and the aviation coalition were formed," the military expert said, adding that the Ramstein meeting is primarily about the urgent needs for our defense."

However, it is worth remembering that any decisions made at Ramstein are not one hundred percent public, they are implemented over many months. So on September 19, the public will only hear what can be publicly announced. And non-public agreements may bear fruit a little later.