Expert predicts terrorism, wars in Africa, migration to Europe after grain deal failure

Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko shared his prognosis with Espreso TV.

"The grain deal is no longer our problem. We are fighting for our independence, and Europe has not yet fully fought. They may have serious problems in the near future because the grain deal is not working, and grain hubs are being systematically destroyed. What will happen in 3-4 months in Africa? Famine, a food crisis due to the lack of Ukrainian grain. Subsequently, political, social, economic, and humanitarian destabilisation will begin in African countries. And then migration will start. A new wave of millions of new African refugees will start coming to Europe," he said.

According to Kovalenko, there will be mostly men there - they will live on state support and not work.

"There is one more thing: this wave of destabilisation in Africa will lead to local conflicts, civil wars or radical movements and terrorist organisations such as ISIS or Boko Haram. This will all be a problem for Europe. Now we have this problem with the grain deal and the fact that Ukraine has not received enough air defence equipment to protect grain hubs," the expert concluded.

Russia's termination of the grain deal

On July 16, the last ship loaded with Ukrainian agricultural products under the initiative left the port of Odesa. On 17 July, Russia announced the termination of the grain deal. In response, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that it was necessary to continue using the grain corridor even despite Russia's withdrawal from the agreement. And Kuleba began urgent consultations at the UN.

The White House condemned Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal, which played a crucial role in reducing global food prices.

On July 18, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there were "certain risks" for parties trying to resume the Black Sea Grain Initiative without Russia's participation.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that it was critical to restore transport links across the Black Sea to provide food to the world's most vulnerable countries and to preserve the ability to export Ukrainian goods.

On July 19, it was reported that Ukraine was considering transporting food as part of the grain initiative through the territorial waters of Bulgaria and neighbouring Romania.

At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defence issued a statement threatening ships heading to Ukraine's Black Sea ports. On the same day, Putin named the conditions for Russia's return to the grain deal and demanded their immediate implementation

The EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said that the only response to Russia's threats to fire on Ukrainian grain ships is to increase military aid to Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense announced that starting July 21, all ships heading to the Black Sea in the direction of Russian seaports and Ukrainian ports in the temporarily occupied territory may be treated by Ukraine as military cargo.