Does the Russian "elite" want Putin dead?

The question has both answers. And it will hang over the Russian oligarchs like the sword of Damocles until, in my opinion, it resolves itself or as a result of some unexpected turn of history.

Mark Feigin tried to answer this question on Espreso TV, but his answer boils down to the same vagueness. "Gerasimov knew perfectly well the state of the Russian army and understood perfectly well how the military support of Ukraine and its Armed Forces from the West for this war would end. And therefore this dissatisfaction is caused by the fact that they do not want to lose...Secondly, to lose the army is to lose their business, a big, gigantic, multibillion-dollar business. They are all billionaires. Gigantic numbers, the kind of crazy money that not even a single Soviet general had dreamed of...They were put in a war situation, which is not about earning or not earning more money, but about living or dying, living or ending up in prison. Why would they do this, for what? They have been living so affluently."

Feigin's assessment applies only to the military. Other, "civilian" oligarchs are also in a state of uncertainty. In particular, most of them made their fortunes during the reign of the "Kremlin big shot" and, obviously, received certain guarantees from him. Because it would be naive to hope for business prosperity in the zone of unwritten laws and "rules" without the consent of the main "capo". So the sudden disappearance of Putin would be a direct threat to Russian billionaires.

On the other hand, all these Deripaskas, Fridmans, Abramovichs, Tinkovs perfectly understand that Putin is toxic, that it is he, crazy about the idea of ​​restoring the empire, who has led the whole country into a trap of international disregard and sanctions. The results of the latter are just coming to the surface, and what will happen next with the Russian economy only the Lord or the American Reserve System knows. Personal sanctions against “the birds from Putin's nest" have already affected not only the financial but also the mental health of yesterday's "powerful people of this world".

“Most of them made their fortunes during the reign of the "Kremlin big shot" and, obviously, received certain guarantees from him. Because it would be naive to hope for business prosperity in the zone of unwritten laws and "rules" without the consent of the main "capo”.

Another reason that keeps Putin in power, and which Putin himself skillfully manipulates, is the understanding that there will be no "transit of power", usual for Russia. That is, one should not expect a "peace agreement" like a New Year's gift from Yeltsin, who pointed the finger at his successor and ordered everyone to listen and obey the will of the gray KGB agent. There will not be another game of "who is the president?", as it once happened with Medvedev. And without "transit" - and everyone understands this well -  another "turmoil" awaits Russia. This time, obviously, it will not be limited to “the Snow Revolution” or individual regions. The “turmoil" will be all-encompassing and it is difficult to predict how the fragile modern structure called "the Russian Federation" will turn out. Or whether it will remain on the world map at all.

“There will be no "transit of power", usual for Russia. That is, one should not expect a "peace agreement" like a New Year's gift from Yeltsin, who pointed the finger at his successor and ordered everyone to listen and obey the will of the gray KGB agent.”

Both the military and civilian elites of Russia are watching with "trembling and shock" the development of a completely new tendency, which some have been quick to call a "criminal revolution." This regards the increasing influence of the owner of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on the "leader". This time, "Putin's cook" stirred the pot by engaging and basically de-criminalizing thousands of prisoners, who committed serious and especially serious crimes. He justifies this by the need to strengthen the army, which, according to the new-found strategist, is being defeated in Ukraine due to the incompetence of the military. The idea seems to have appealed to Putin, who agreed to the formation of Wagner 2.0. But this time, the "commander" is not some Prigozhin with two convictions, but "the master thief in law" Armen Sarkisyan (also known as Gorlovsky).

Of course, in the case of an extraordinary event (i.e. the sudden death of Putin), these two groups and several other similar private armies (in particular, Gazprom) will become powerful tools for the capture and retention of power by their masters. And the "gentle souls" of the Russian oligarchy cannot fool themselves with the prospect of "dekulakization", or more precisely, the Bolshevik-style looting common in Russia. At least Prigozhin no longer hides his desire to rob the excessively rich, hinting that it would be worthwhile to share with the army what was stolen from the common people.

“Both the military and civilian elites of Russia are watching with "trembling and shock" the development of a completely new tendency, which some have been quick to call a "criminal revolution." This regards the increasing influence of the owner of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin.”

Therefore, the Russian "elites" are currently more inclined to preserve the status quo, no matter how unpleasant it may be. They perfectly understand how fatal all options are, they have no illusions neither about the outcome of the Russian war against Ukraine nor about the price they will be forced to pay for this and other adventures of Putin. The only question is to whom will they have to pay - reparations and contributions to Ukraine, or to the "hawks", who have been criminals just yesterday but will rule what will remain on the ruins of Russia.