Crimea may be liberated by the end of August – General Ben Hodges

Kyrylo Budanov, the сhief of Ukraine's military intelligence, believes that the main battles will end in late spring this year and that the Ukrainian army has every chance to de-occupy Crimea this summer. Is this just positive thinking or do such predictions have a right to life?

First of all, nothing will be achieved if everyone is negative, so we need positive leadership that sees the potential and the possibilities. That's why I absolutely agree that Crimea may be liberated by the end of this summer, by the end of August, but it will of course require incredible courage from the Ukrainian soldiers who are fighting around Bakhmut and in the area to continue to stop Russian attacks so that the Ukrainian forces can build up the new armored forces that will be needed to isolate Crimea sometime this summer. And then, of course, the West should provide the necessary assistance, including long-range precision weapons that can help isolate Crimea and then make it unusable for Russian troops. I am optimistic and I agree with General Budanov.

Do you agree with one of the Ukrainian officials who recently said that perhaps Crimea will be de-occupied first, and then we will deal with Donbas?

I agree that Crimea is a priority. It is what we would call decisive, because Ukraine will never be safe and will not be able to rebuild its economy as long as Russia occupies Crimea. Kyiv should not succumb to any pressure to give up Crimea, otherwise we will be talking with you in three years during the next wave of the Russian war against Ukraine. I think that as soon as Crimea is liberated, there will be a lot of changes on the Russian side, and I think that Russian troops and these so-called separatists in Donbas will not have much enthusiasm to continue fighting. So I don't see it as liberating Crimea and then negotiating Donbas, I see it as liberating Crimea and then Donbas will be liberated. 

Putin continues to intimidate the world with nuclear rhetoric. Recently, he announced that Russia was suspending its participation in New START. What is he preparing for and what next step will he take?

Well, of course, it's another reminder that Russia, at least Russia under Vladimir Putin, is not a reliable partner for negotiations. I'm not a lawyer, but technically you can't suspend participation in a treaty on your own. You are either in the treaty or you are not. And so this is typical Russian behavior. They withdrew from the grain deal, and two days later they returned to it, so it's normal. I don't think it shows that they are preparing for something. I think Russia is trying to exploit potential cracks within the West with this kind of nonsense. I think it's so desperate that it's trying to grow, to grasp at straws, we would say, for its own population.

The US is discussing with other countries the supply of fourth- and fifth-generation fighter jets to Ukraine. This was stated by Victoria Nuland, the US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs. Does this mean that Ukraine will finally receive these fighters and how will they change the situation on the battlefield?

I hope so, and when Victoria Nuland tells me something, she speaks with real authority. I remember back in 2015, I think it was she who made it possible for us to provide the Q36 counter-battery radar to the Ukrainian forces. She is a serious person, I trust her judgment, and I think that over time we will get to the point where the aircraft will be provided. I wish we could change the policy, and even if the decision hasn't been made yet, let's start the training, because it will take at least four months, if you take a Ukrainian pilot who already has a lot of experience on one aircraft, it's probably about four months of training for that officer to become proficient on a new platform. So let's start the training knowing that we will probably come to a decision anyway. 

Politico reported that in January, CIA Director William Burns urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to launch a counteroffensive as soon as possible, as military support may begin to dwindle. Is Ukraine capable of doing this?

They will start it as soon as it becomes possible and appropriate. Over the last year I have been so impressed with the Ukrainian General Staff, how disciplined it is, how professional it is and how well it understands the operational level of warfare, and so I think the General Staff, I don't know this of course, but this is my assessment, I think the General Staff recognizes that the Russian offensive is really just an increase in the number of poorly trained conscripts, that we will run out of fuel, we will run out of momentum by May. So in the meantime, the General Staff is building and preparing an armored force that will consist mainly of Ukrainian and captured Russian tanks, IFVs, and other armored vehicles. And then with the addition of equipment provided by Western countries, by June or so they will be ready to go on the offensive and strike somewhere other than Bakhmut. This will help isolate Crimea, and I think the General Staff has nerves of steel, and it's important that the government gives them the opportunity to focus their efforts on one area. And don't put pressure on the General Staff to try to attack everywhere, as the Russians do. So you need to focus all your efforts on one place where you can break through the Russian defense, and that's how they isolate Crimea.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the US administration is deciding whether to make public its intelligence that China is now weighing the pros and cons of arms sales to Russia. What do you think about this? If China takes such a step, how could it change the situation on the frontline?

I think China is in an interesting situation. They have warned Russia not to use nuclear weapons, President XI has done so. At the same time, I think they would like to see the United States in particular and the West in general fail. They would like to see us fail, and so they also want to avoid sanctions, of course. So they are trying to balance all these things. I think what Secretary Blinken did was very smart to say publicly last week in Munich that we believe we know that China is considering providing arms or assistance to Russia, and that this of course puts China in a bind, just as it did with Russia a year ago, and that China is forced to deny that it is doing that. I think that's actually a good use of intelligence and a smart way to use information.