Crimea is key to Ukraine's victory

Russia is very close to the outbreak of a powerful internal conflict. Everything points to this. However, even if the Russian front collapses and some of the military starts moving towards Moscow, this will not remove the threat to Ukrainians from the Russian Federation. Uncertainty and political instability will create new problems, while the old ones will not disappear.

An undefeated Russia will pose a great threat to Ukraine. This will encourage the elites who will remain there after the civil conflict to seek revenge. And a future conflict seems inevitable if there are forces in Moscow that will again seek the status of the Russian Federation as a superpower and, accordingly, to fulfil its new desire for world domination.

“After all, it would be premature to think that after Russia has been pushed out of every metre of our territory, the Russian Federation will simply withdraw its troops and voluntarily start paying reparations to Ukraine. That would be the end of the career for all politicians in power, if not their lives. Their thoughts will be focused on restoring Russia's military power and trying to avenge their defeat”

It is obvious that Moscow is losing to the West in terms of GDP, economic power and social sphere, but there is one area in which Russia can recover relatively quickly for a new aggression. This is the military sphere, and we should not turn a blind eye to it. Of course, the Russian Federation will never again be able to claim the status of the world's second largest army. But it will continue to be a constant regional threat to Ukraine and the states that have the misfortune to be Russia's neighbours. The degraded but large Russian army is a time bomb that can explode at any moment.

Unprecedented brutality is a "strategic value" of the Russian Federation's reputation. Their terrorist troops kill, maim and endanger civilians, and Russian society is ready to accept or at least ignore this brutality.

“The unpunished massive crimes against humanity committed by the Russian military in Ukraine only encourage Putin to commit new acts of violence, continue mass murder and destroy the country he has long considered his victim. It would be naive to think that the Russians will voluntarily retreat from the Ukrainian territories they occupy at some point unless they suffer a crushing defeat on the battlefield”

Therefore, the refusal to provide Ukraine with the types of weapons that are essential for a decisive victory over Moscow's enemies, the constant unjustified dosing of their supply, delays in their delivery and restrictions on the use of those already provided, actually leads to the introduction of uncertainty. At a time when only Ukraine's victory should be the goal.

And it is already evident that the Crimean peninsula will be the main part of the Ukrainian major offensive when it begins. Ukraine's victory on the Crimean battlefield could finally dash the hopes of Putin and his geopolitical patron, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, to change the world order.

Therefore, it is hard to disagree with General Ben Hodges, one of the most responsible and knowledgeable military analysts, that as long as Russia controls Crimea, Ukraine will never be able to rebuild its economy. Maintaining control over Crimea allows Ukraine to have a stronger position in regional security and maritime affairs.  

This is exactly the case. Without Ukraine's control over Crimea, Ukrainian ships will never be able to move freely in the internationally recognised part of the Black Sea, which means that Ukrainian shipping will always depend on the "goodwill" of aggressive Russia.

“That is why Putin needs a "truce" with Ukraine so badly, because then he can discuss the status of Crimea endlessly, while the Ukrainian Crimean peninsula will continue to be under Russian occupation”

Such a "truce" would allow Putin to regroup his forces, strengthen ties with his supporters, who would see the collective West as weak and put at least some of their "eggs in the dictator's basket". Humiliating Putin with defeat is the only way to rid Russia and the world of him. Putin must lose power and his regime must disappear forever.

The Russian Federation is a totalitarian, imperialistic and paranoid country. It is impossible to negotiate with its political establishment, as it has never fulfilled its obligations. In this sense, the strategy for this artificial territorial formation should be simple: defeat, destroy and dismember Russia.

Otherwise, Russian elites will never change their aggressive behaviour in the international arena. They, like Putin, have no other political philosophy than that of "force is always above law". For this reason, the defeat of Russia without its disintegration into independent ethnic states can only postpone for a while attacks on countries that it perceives as hostile. And it is not necessarily that these will be only countries near its borders.

“Putin is now in a very difficult situation for him. He is facing another rebellion, which is likely to be much more difficult for him to overcome than the previous Prigozhin rebellion. At the same time, there remains a great possibility that this rebellion against his government could potentially escalate into a major civil confrontation”

If some FSB and army generals do not support Putin, it will be difficult for him to simultaneously direct security forces loyal to him to suppress a new rebellion and continue his war of aggression in Ukraine. This is a great opportunity for us. In this way, a weakened Russia, dealing with its internal affairs, will not be able to throw all its available forces at the destruction of Ukrainian statehood.

However, despite the fact that Ukrainians have shown their valour, ingenuity and resilience in the fight against a much larger and initially better-equipped Russian enemy, this stage of the war can only be the beginning of the end in one case. If Ukraine is provided with the tools for our victory as soon as possible - ATACMS tactical missile systems, tanks, ammunition and modern aircraft - to regain the occupied lands as quickly as possible.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces must be able to reach the Russian forces at a great distance, including on the occupied Crimean peninsula. We have already received some assistance from our allies, which allows us to target ammunition depots, command structures and airfields in Crimea. However, this is not enough to successfully complete the complex task facing the Ukrainian military.

“To deny Ukraine the opportunity to fight a war with Russia on equal terms is the same as asking a boxer to fight in the ring with one hand while the other is tied behind his back. Ukraine needs more strategic weapons, and they should be delivered much faster. ATACMS and A-10 attack aircraft right now, F-16 fighter jets after the final decision is made by the United States”

Crimea is becoming the key to the de-occupation of Ukraine. Therefore, achieving victory for Ukraine requires the speedy de-occupation of the Crimean peninsula. So far, in southern Ukraine, the occupiers have often managed to maintain their positions by hiding behind a minefield. Therefore, modern, reliable demining equipment and machinery should also be among the priority supplies for the Armed Forces. The path to the liberation of Ukrainian Crimea needs to be cleared as soon as possible. This will determine how quickly we can drive the Russians out of all other Ukrainian territories.

Figuratively speaking, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is the last gasp of its colonial aspirations. Moscow's neo-colonialism will result in its inevitable defeat. Everything must be done to ensure that this defeat comes as soon as possible.

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About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.